Like most Novembers, it is time for the latest stallions to retire to stud. But unlike many Novembers long gone, the latest entries into the breeding game are young and still vibrant. And for hopeful financial gain, the new males will go about propagating, leaving the pacing and trotting to the colts less fortunate and less rich during only two racing seasons. In the 2010 stud book you will find names of horses that, though unproven as sires, are led into a new career because no one connected to them wants to take the chance that they might become injured while racing as an older horse, which could greatly affect their worth as a sire. So, there go some mighty great horses from the tracks to the fields of breeding farms across the continent. Goodbye Muscle Hill, Well Said, Explosive Matter and the most recently exiled to the breeding shed, If I Can Dream. The colt has a one-way ticket to Kentuckiana Farms of New York for the 2010 breeding season.
“We are extremely excited that Bulletproof Enterprises [owners] made the decision to retire If I Can Dream to the farm where he was foaled and raised,” said Kentuckiana owner and farm manager Bob Brady. “We anticipate him becoming a very successful sire for us and could not be happier.” Every year it seems the sport loses another great colt and that is a shame because the four-year-old-and-up races that adorn the winter months of a new year are exciting, greatly contested and fabulous races to wager upon. The sport is literally robbed of so much great talent that can make for greater races for the true lifeblood of the industry: the bettors. Last year’s Horse of the Year –the flashy, record-breaking Somebeachsomewhere—was retired to Hanover Shoe Farm in Pennsylvania to continue the Mach Three bloodline; as if one or two more seasons could not have waited for the progeny. But of course his book was full and closed early and the international market called, as his frozen semen became a coveted product in the Australasian studbook. Though it is true that colts race faster than ever, it may be just that factor which drives them to the breeding shed instead of to the starting gate for the lucrative, competitive older stakes in the sport. But that may be a poor excuse when you consider the courage of owners George Segal and the late Brian Monieson, who delayed Artsplace retirement at three in lieu of a racing campaign at four. Artsplace won every race at four and went on to be one of the most prolific sires of the century. No one connected should have made one less penny because Artsplace became an attraction, no less a success, at four. Now, the only thing that could bring one of these youngster sires back to the track is the possibility that they lack a certain and important prowess early on as a sire. This happened, for instance, in recent history, to Mr. Feelgood. The accomplished sophomore pacer, who we correctly chose to win the Little Brown Jug a month before the event, went on to a sterling season, which saw him retire at three. But his stud career tanked like a led zeppelin and he went back into training. He provided the older clan that season with a strength that lasted the whole season and awarded him some terrific stakes wins. Then, he went Down Under and won the coveted Inter-Dominion Pacing Series. It was his failure as a stud that allowed fans and bettors to sensationalize on a magnificent pacer. The same goes for trotters. Over the past few seasons we have lost Muscle Hill, Deweycheatumnhowe, Chocolatier and others, which is why the trotting stakes for older horses are so thin with fresh characters. New entries into the older ranks are the elements that keeps trotting the more popular of the two gaits in the European standardbred scene. It is not uncommon, in fact, for older trotters to breed and race in the “old countries.” So which elders will return? The first round of stakes for older horses and mares is just on the horizon, so we shall see. Harness racing returns to the Meadowlands on Friday, Jan. 1, 2010. The first week of series action begins Wednesday, Jan. 6 with the Super Bowl for trotters four-years-old and under (but mostly the fours, those returning to the track from their sophomore campaigns). And there is White Ruffles for four-year-old pacing mares, the Clyde Hirt for pacers four and under and the Complex for five-year-olds and under. All in all there are 16 events in three weeks consisting of two preliminary legs and a final. Each final is estimated to be worth more than $50,000. And this is just the beginning. We will, as we do every year, keep you posted on these winter events and others at North American tracks for older horses. Though we will miss the stars, there is plenty of room for horses to come into their own in the older ranks and plenty of betting action with the cast that arrives for these events. Driver update We encourage all of you to keep these personal tabs on drivers at tracks where you play most, to prove that the driver element in harness racing is one of the most misconstrued elements of harness handicapping. Last week we began our example case, citing Anthony Morgan, who just reached the $100-million plateau in earnings. As the headliner in Delaware, Morgan continues to be a flat-bet loss, more than suggesting that bettors will profit more by not wagering on his horses. Through Nov. 14, Morgan has driven in 114 races, winning 14 for a win average of 12 percent. That would be terrific if his 14 winners were paying decent prices but his average win price is $4.24. On horses he drove that were favorites he won 10 or 32 for a decent average of 32 percent, though not enough to toss a profit for a bettor relying on Morgan for profits. The harshest raw number is this: if you wagered on every horse Morgan has driven so far at Dover you would have shelled out $228, getting back only $59. That is a loss of $169. This is no reflection on the prowess of Mr. Morgan; it is just a wonderful example of mistaking a top money-winning driver for a good bet. Meanwhile, at Dover, Brad Hanners has returned after campaigns in Florida and Indiana. And after a number of years absence, veteran John Wagner, one of Delmarva's top horsemen, is back at the track. And drivers Bret Brittingham and Kim Vincent are off to an excellent start this meet. As well, a few young drivers are making an impression. Blake Baker, a 21-year-old, and Jason Lynch, 20, are forces to watch.