If there is ever a vote to determine the most overused phrase or word in the English language, “it depends” would probably be among the top five (somewhere behind “basically,” I’d guess). Nonetheless, when fellow pony players ask me what I look for when I handicap, “it depends” is my typical response. Because, the truth is, every race is different: selection techniques that work in graded stakes events might not — and probably will not — work in cheap claiming affairs for state-bred non-winners of two.
So, in this week’s column and in the future, I will attempt to give readers some (very) general tips on what to concentrate on in different kinds of races. These nuggets o’ wisdom are especially timely given that Youbet.com is holding the My ROI Challenge, which consists of separate wagering contests (running through Feb. 14) that focus on a variety of unique race and bet types.
Let’s get the ball rolling with a look at both straight maiden and maiden claiming events:
MAIDEN RACES
Just as in all races, horses in sharp form must be considered in maiden affairs of any class.
Pay particular attention to horses that placed (finished second) last time out. Also, note the margin between the second- and third-place finishers — the bigger that number, the better.
Insist on at least a modicum of early foot. One of the worst bets in racing is a late-running maiden, even in routes or on a synthetic surface (turf is a different story).
Claiming
Maiden claiming races are to straight (non-claiming) maiden races like minor league baseball is to major league baseball. Playing pro ball — at any level — is a huge accomplishment, something that very few people are talented enough to do but, let’s face it, there’s a big difference between playing for the New York Mets and suiting up for the Buffalo Bisons. OK, maybe not a big difference, at least in 2009, but you get the point.
The same is true of horses competing in maiden claiming events. Getting to the races is an accomplishment in and of itself, but there is typically a large chasm of talent between the average maiden and maiden claiming entrant (depending on the track and the actual claiming price, of course). Thus, when hunting for contenders in maiden claiming races, start first with those horses dropping from straight maiden, or maiden special weight (MSW), affairs.
Also, when evaluating workouts, don’t be awed by quick times. Remember, if the horse was so fast, it would be competing against straight maidens, not running for a tag. Instead, look for evenly spaced, progressively longer drills.
Non-Claiming
Non-claiming, or straight, maiden races are all about the moolah — the dough that is spent and the cash that is bet. Hence, astute players should focus on horses that commanded a big price at auction and/or those that are attracting attention at the wagering windows today or were bet heavily in the past. Solid connections and a good series of consistent workouts don’t hurt either.
Tip: Give extra credit to horses that sold at auction for a price far in excess (10x or more) of their sire’s stud fee. (You’ll find this data in the Daily Racing Form.)
California Derby Lures Field of Six
The California Derby, which was won last year by Chocolate Candy, who went on to compete in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, is scheduled to take place Saturday at Golden Gate Fields. Below is a summary of the entrants:
1-OUR MINESWEEPER
Idaho-bred gelding is looking more and more like a sprinter. In addition to a borderline 4.00 Dosage Index (DI), Our Minesweeper pressed a very soft pace in the one-mile Gold Rush (+2 early speed ration) last time, yet still fell short at the wire. Prior to that, the son of Cause Ur Mine faded to finish fourth in a pair of sprints. In his only other route attempt, Our Minesweeper won the Bart Heller, while earning a decent 81 Beyer speed figure and a so-so -9 late speed ration.
2-CONNEMARA
This guy certainly has the pedigree to be a good one, but his last race really concerns me. After an awesome debut at Turfway Park, where he blitzed straight maidens by five widening lengths and recorded a 77 Beyer and -2 LSR, Connemara was all-out to defeat allowance runners at Santa Anita a month later. Worse yet, both his early and late pace numbers declined, as did his Beyer. That said, he did defeat Ranger Heartley (see below) that day.
3-THOMAS BAINES
Son of Johannesburg has the look of a live longshot, as he exits a strong edition of the Eddie Logan, a one-mile turf contest at Santa Anita. Previous to that, Thomas Baine bid and hung to finish fourth behind — here’s that name again — Ranger Heartley in his North American debut on Nov. 27.
4-CAHILL COUNTRY
Although generally improving, Cahill Country’s Beyers are on the less-filling side and his pace figures, while decent, were earned on turf and, thus, don’t really translate to the all-weather surface he’ll attempt to negotiate on Saturday. He’s not one of my primary contenders.
5-RANGER HEARTLEY
John Sadler charge lost to Connemara over Santa Anita’s early speed-stifling surface, then looked great when he shipped to Hollywood Park and won in wire-to-wire fashion on Nov. 27. He seems up against it (whatever “it” is) on Saturday, however, as he appears to be at the mercy of Shudacudawudya in terms of the pace. Either Ranger Heartley is going to have to expend more energy than he’s accustomed to to grab the early lead, or he’s going to have to come off the pace. Neither proposition appears “pari-mutuely” promising.
6-SHUDACUDAWUDYA
Pros: Each of Shudacudawudya’s last three Beyer figures is better than the best number recorded by any of his rivals. And the Lloyd Mason trainee doesn’t appear to be a one-dimensional speedball either — at least judging by his 3.00 DI and impressive off-the-pace win in the Golden Nugget.
Cons: The son of Marino Marini (a confirmed sprinter) is in the unenviable position of being the pacesetter in a field with other speed types or stalking what will likely be soft fractions (if he takes back).
The ‘Inside’ Scoop on Oaklawn Park
With Oaklawn Park scheduled to open this weekend, handicappers would be wise to watch the inner post positions (1-3), which enjoyed a healthy advantage last year.
SPRINTS
|
Positions
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
|
Starts
|
332
|
332
|
332
|
332
|
331
|
325
|
307
|
264
|
216
|
172
|
115
|
60
|
|
Wins
|
63
|
54
|
39
|
31
|
34
|
31
|
23
|
18
|
15
|
10
|
8
|
7
|
|
%
|
18.98
|
16.27
|
11.75
|
9.34
|
10.27
|
9.54
|
7.49
|
6.82
|
6.94
|
5.81
|
6.96
|
11.67
|
ROUTES
|
Positions
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
|
Starts
|
200
|
200
|
200
|
200
|
200
|
196
|
181
|
152
|
120
|
87
|
55
|
25
|
|
Wins
|
34
|
28
|
31
|
18
|
21
|
21
|
13
|
10
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
|
%
|
17.00
|
14.00
|
15.50
|
9.00
|
10.50
|
10.71
|
7.18
|
6.58
|
6.67
|
9.20
|
14.55
|
0.00
|
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.