Legendary football coach Vince Lombardi once said, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.” Obviously, Lombardi never tried handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

Since 1973, only 17 Derby champions were also victorious in their final prep. A somewhat surprising figure given that, in the past four years alone, 31 Derby starters posed for pictures just prior to their run in the Bluegrass State, with 10 of them (83 percent) among the top three betting choices on the first Saturday in May.

Why am I noting all this?

Well, to be honest, it’s so you won’t think I’m crazy when I tell you that I’m sticking to my guns regarding I Want Revenge, the ultra-impressive winner of last weekend’s Wood Memorial (see replay below). Yeah, I know the son of Stephen Got Even dealt with more adversity in that race than a kitten at a Kindergarten show-and-tell, but I still maintain that his best days are now behind him — at least temporarily — and he’s going to be a dry lemon by the time “My Old Kentucky Home” plays at Churchill Downs on May 2.

Here’s the deal: The Kentucky Derby is all about peaking at the right time and I don’t think I Want Revenge is. In his last three starts, the recent IEAH acquisition has recorded late speed rations (LSRs) of -3, +1 and 0. That’s the best trio of pace figures since Street Sense in 2007 and far superior to those garnered by Triple Crown winners like Secretariat (-9, -8, -16), Seattle Slew (-4, -12, -13) and Affirmed (-13, -10, -2).

Can I Want Revenge buck history and triumph in Louisville? Sure, but as one of the favorites, he’s not worth the risk.

Simon Says: Another Derby Favorite Bites the Dust 

To learn which other high-profile Kentucky Derby favorite I’m leaving off my trifecta tickets this May, be sure to listen to the newest Simon Says podcast sponsored by Youbet.com. On this weekend’s show I discuss the latest Derby happenings, provide some value betting tips and analyze both the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby.

Baffling Blue Grass

If you’ve pondered how life began, the existence of aliens or why Donald Trump combs his hair the way he does, you’re sure to be fascinated by this weekend’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse. In a word, it’s a “puzzle.”

While Hold Me Back has been made the 3-1 morning line favorite on the strength of his win in the Grade 2 Lane’s End on March 21, several other entrants appear to have a legitimate chance of punching their Kentucky Derby tickets in Saturday’s Lexington feature. Below is a peek at some of the main contenders (in post position order):

THEREGOESJOJO (7/2 morning line odds) — Second and third behind Quality Road in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby respectively, trainer Ken McPeek has said that he thinks the son of Brahms may be “four to five lengths better” on a synthetic or turf surface. Given that the Blue Grass will be run on Keeneland’s all-weather main track, this bodes well for Theregoesjojo, whose Beyer speed figures are already amongst the best in Saturday’s field.

MAFAAZ (12/1) — Although he’s already secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate by virtue of his win in the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes at Kempton (Great Britain) last month, trainer John Gosden is looking for another good effort from his charge in Lexington before committing to Louisville.

“If he wins there and is in good order he'll go [to the Kentucky Derby],” Gosden told the “Bloodhorse” after Mafaaz’s win at Kempton.

TERRAIN (6/1) — Sky Mesa gelding is sneaky-good, as his only bad race came after he donned blinkers for the first time and promptly recorded a -14 early speed ration (ESR) while battling with Three Part Harmony and Big Drama in the Delta Downs Jackpot on Dec. 5. Other than that fifth-place debacle, the Albert Stall trainee has been a solid stakes performer, with a win in the Mountaineer Juvenile and in-the-money finishes in both the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity and the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity over the same Keeneland course he’ll tackle again this weekend.

CHARITABLE MAN (4/1) — This son of Lemon Drop Kid, who is two-for-two lifetime, looks like the controlling speed under jockey Alan Garcia and has already recorded Beyers of 96 and 93 — as a juvenile, no less. Still, this is his first start of 2009, his first attempt routing and his first try over a synthetic surface; insist on a decent price.

HOLD ME BACK (3/1) — Kent Desormeaux opts for this one over Theregoesjojo, which is at least interesting, if not particularly meaningful. Simply put Hold Me Back is the horse to beat on Saturday. His most recent Beyer is among the best in the field and he is a perfect three-for-three on artificial dirt.

MASSONE (12/1) — Ronald McAnally trainee was last seen finishing a close second to the underrated Chocolate Candy in the El Camino Real Derby on Feb. 14. The fact that Garrett Gomez sees fit to ride is also a positive. I’m not thrilled with his deteriorating pace figures though.