It was obvious.
From the moment Jess Jackson and Harold T. McCormick shelled out an estimated $3-4 million to purchase Rachel Alexandra, it was as plain as the nose on Eddie Arcaro’s face that the superstar filly would be entered in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes — come Hell or high-handedness.
Luckily, the latter obstacle was removed earlier this week when Mark Allen, co-owner of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, Zyatt Stable, owner of Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas decided against entering additional horses in the Preakness as a means of keeping Rachel out.
Now, only a stroll with Dante remains.
Personally, I think betting on Rachel Alexandra in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown makes about as much sense as fried celery — but what do I know? I probably would have said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby.
Below is a horse-by-horse look at Saturday’s Preakness field:
1-BIG DRAMA (10/1 on the morning line)
This colt is sure to have his supporters given his imposing record: five wins, one second and a third from just seven lifetime starts, but he may suffer from what could be a blistering pace. Still, I won’t argue with those who think the improving son of Montbrook poses a legitimate upset threat.
Fair Odds: 8-1
2-MINE THAT BIRD (6/1)
Pros:
• His margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby was the fourth-largest ever, inferior only to the eight-length scores of Triple Crown champions Assault (1946) and Whirlaway (1941), and 1939 Belmont Stakes winner Johnstown.
• Since 1932 (when the order of the Triple Crown events was finally set), 27 of 66 Kentucky Derby winners went on to capture the Preakness, returning $1.08 for every dollar wagered.
Cons:
• Just four of 19 previous Derby winners that paid more than $20 in Kentucky also triumphed in Maryland — the last being Funny Cide in 2003.
• Over the past 17 years, eight horses improved their latest Beyer figure by five points or more while winning the Run for the Roses. Of those, only one — Silver Charm in 1997 — went on to annex the Preakness. Mine That Bird’s 105 Derby Beyer was a whopping 25 points better than the figure he earned in the Sunland Derby, his final prep.
Fair Odds: 9-2
3-MUSKET MAN (8/1)
Keeps proving the experts wrong by outrunning his pedigree, but has the look of an underlay against Saturday’s foes.
Fair Odds: 10-1
4-LUV GOV (50/1)
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas calls Luv Gov his “Belmont horse.” Alright, I’ve decided to call my singing “beautiful and inspirational.” Clearly, neither one of us knows what we’re talking about. Luv Gov just broke his maiden after nine previous tries and I make cats in heat sound like the Commodores.
Fair Odds: 60-1
5-FRIESAN FIRE (6/1)
Larry Jones trainee injured his hoof and lost all chance in the Derby. Toss that race and one is left with a solid contender.
Fair Odds: 6-1
6-TERRAIN (30/1)
His Beyers are light — if that matters anymore — but, other than that, Terrain looks reasonably good. In fact, his only poor effort came in the Delta Downs Jackpot won by Big Drama, where he donned blinkers for the first time and pressed an insanely fast pace. Landing Maryland rider Jeremy Rose in the saddle doesn’t hurt his chances either.
Fair Odds: 15-1
7-PAPA CLEM (12/1)
Papa Clem’s late speed rations (LSRs) are headed in the wrong direction, yet he figures to be a square price — tough call.
Fair Odds: 15-1
8-GENERAL QUARTERS (20/1)
The feel-good story of 2009 — no, I’m not going to repeat it; I’m worried my head would explode — was a massive underlay in Louisville and ran like Cinderella at the stroke of midnight. Now, it’s 12:01 and General Quarters is beginning to look more like the horse that finished fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby than the one that captured the Blue Grass — and, with it, the hearts of adoring fans across the country.
Fair Odds: 30-1
9-PIONEEROF THE NILE (5/1)
Pioneerof the Nile proved in the Derby that he could run on the dirt — just not that quickly, as he posted yet another mid-90 Beyer figure (95). However, the son of Empire Maker did suffer a wide trip in Kentucky and the Preakness pace should be much more to his liking; he’s a contender.
Fair Odds: 6-1
10-FLYING PRIVATE (50/1)
Seeing Flying Private finish last on the first Saturday in May restored my faith in handicapping and made Mine That Bird’s improbable victory slightly more palatable. The D. Wayne Lukas protégé looks overmatched again, though I would be less surprised by a good finish this time around.
Fair Odds: 50-1
11-TAKE THE POINTS (30/1)
Shh, be quiet… trainer Todd Pletcher is still pitching a shutout in the first two legs of the Triple Crown series and I don’t want to break his concentration — at least not yet. Although Take The Points has been pointed specifically for Saturday’s contest, I’m still on the fence about him.
Fair Odds: 30-1
12-TONE IT DOWN (50/1)
The Maryland connections are enticing, given the history of such horses performing well in the Preakness, but Tone It Down’s speed and pace figures temper my enthusiasm like a cash bar at a wedding reception.
Fair Odds: 75-1
13-RACHEL ALEXANDRA (8/5)
What I Like…
• Medaglia d’Oro filly has earned triple-digit Beyer figures and excellent LSRs (-5 or less) in each of her last four starts.
• Though she possesses a high cruising speed — I’m not really sure what that means, but I hear other horseracing experts talk about it — Rachel Alexandra proved she can rate in both the Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park and the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
What I Don’t…
• Former trainer Hal Wiggins didn’t prepare Rachel Alexandra to race so soon after her Oaks score on May 1 and, perhaps, with good reason. Rachel is 0-for-2 when returning to the races on 15 days’ rest.
• Curlin’s future blind date is 8-5 on the morning line, despite new connections and the fact that she is trying a longer distance and facing males for the first time ever.
Fair Odds: 3-1
For Preakness wagering suggestions, as well as other random thoughts, be sure to listen to this week’s Simon Says podcast.
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.
|