In 1900, Louis Bachelier, a French mathematician, outlined his theory of efficient markets in a dissertation entitled “The Theory of Speculation” (or “Théorie de la spéculation” for those of you who are sticklers for accuracy). Though Bachelier’s work was largely ignored at the time, it formed the basis of many similar studies conducted throughout the 1960s.

Perhaps the most famous of these was Dr. Eugene Fama’s “The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices” that appeared in the January edition of The Journal of Business in ‘65 (four years prior to a particularly gratifying summer for Canadian singer/songwriter Brian Adams). In the Journal piece, Fama noted that fluctuating stock prices appear to be “consistent with an ‘efficient’ market, that is, a market where prices at every point in time represent best estimates of intrinsic values. This implies in turn that, when an intrinsic value changes, the actual price will adjust instantaneously.”

In addition to killing his chances of becoming a pop culture icon by using a word like “intrinsic” not once, but twice, in the same passage, Fama also put a damper on attempts to beat the market averages with technical systems and other intellectual gadgets. And while there is ample evidence to suggest that the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is not altogether foolproof, its basic tenet — that prices vary based on the information available — seems unassailable.

This helps to explain why, despite all of the new information available to horseplayers these days, favorites still win approximately one out of every three races and offer the same negative return on investment (ROI) they always have. It also explains why Beyer speed figures, pars and other sophisticated wagering tools eventually lose their pari-mutuel punch.

“In the past I have collected odds as high as 50 to 1 on horses with the top [Beyer speed] figure,” wrote Andrew Beyer in “Beyer on Speed” (originally published in 1993). “I would guess that as recently as 1990 a bet on every top figure would have yielded a profitable ROI. But the inclusion of speed figures in the Daily Racing Form has inevitably depressed the odds on horses with good numbers.”

For more on this subject, check out this weekend’s “Simon Says” podcast.

Cool Coal Man Tops Lord of the Night Stakes at Belmont

It looks like the recent wave of financial bailouts and proposed tax discounts have struck a chord with the racing office at Belmont Park, where Saturday’s fourth event, the Lord of the Night Stakes, offers starters a $750 rebate of their $1,000 initial entry fee. It’s too bad pitchman Billy Mays doesn’t work for NYRA, as entrants might have scored a free bottle of OxiClean and some Kaboom as well.

The race itself is quite interesting, having drawn graded stakes veteran Cool Coal Man and the up-and-coming Discreet Treasure. Personally, I think the former looks like a standout, as he enters the contest following two runner-up finishes against much tougher.

The Lord of the Night field (with my fair odds):

1-Plan (5-1)
1A-Pictural (5-1)
2-Discreet Treasure (7-2)
2B-Giant Chieftan (7-2)
3-Cool Coal Man (8-5)
4-Fierce Wind (15-1)
5-True Resurgence (19-1)

‘World’s Fastest Horse’ to Run on Saturday

First Moonflash, dubbed by some as the “World’s Fastest Horse,” will venture outside the Land of Enchantment for the first time ever on Saturday, as the New Mexico speedster is slated to compete in the $200,000 Remington Park Championship at — you’ll never guess — Remington Park in Oklahoma City, Okla.

With 10 wins from just 20 lifetime starts, First Moonflash has set new world records in each of his last four outings — all at Sunland Park.

The rest of the RP Championship field includes Bannow Bay, Adios My Amigos, Trisk, DMNV Mountable, Separate Bet, Here To Entertain, A Stoli Mate, Hot Memory, Illegal Memories, Chances Are I Wil and Sassys Tuffy.