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Your edge for wagering this weekend.
Jun 5, 2009
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Derek Simon
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10 jockeys have won the coveted Triple Crown, consisting of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. One, Eddie Arcaro, even won it twice — atop Whiralway in 1941 and Citation in 1948. But no one — not even the great “Banana Nose” — won all three jewels in the same year on different mounts, a situation that Calvin Borel hopes to rectify this weekend.

After guiding Mine That Bird to an improbable victory in the Run for the Roses on May 2, Borel scored with the gallant filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness two weeks later. Shortly (or, perhaps, not-so-shortly) thereafter, when Rachel’s owner, Jess Jackson, announced that his stable star “deserves a well-earned vacation” and would skip the Belmont, it cleared the way for the most celebrated reunion since Eminem and Sacha Baron Cohen — minus (one would hope) the nudity.

The usually humble and soft-spoken Borel is clearly elated to be back aboard Mine That Bird, going so far as to guarantee victory on Saturday. “We’re gonna win,” Borel said, adding, “no questions asked.” (I’m guessing the veteran jockey misspoke, but perhaps, he’s all talked out after recent appearances on the “Tonight Show,” “60 Minutes” and the “Late Show with David Letterman.”)

Communication skills aside, Borel could be right, as this year’s Belmont field, minus a couple of notable exceptions, looks about as strong as a pitcher of O'Doul's.

The field:

1. CHOCOLATE CANDY (10/1 morning line odds)

The jury’s still out as to whether or not this guy can run on the dirt, as his only wins have come over all-weather surfaces in California. That said, he might be worth a deuce or two at the right price.

Fair Odds: 8-1

2. DUNKIRK (4/1)

I’m more than willing to chalk up Dunkirk’s non-effort in Kentucky to inexperience and a horrendous break, but 4-1 on the morning line? Come on, I could get better odds wagering that Pamela Anderson’s next wedding will last longer than six months, which is saying something.

Fair Odds: 6-1

3. MR. HOT STUFF (15/1)

He’s really not that hot.

Fair Odds: 25-1

4. SUMMER BIRD (12/1)

Summer Bird, makes me feel fine, blowing through the jasmine in my mind… wait a minute, I’m thinking of “Summer Breeze.” And the only jasmine that’s ever been in my mind wasn’t a plant; she was a beautiful woman seated at a Seattle bar many moons ago. Unfortunately, I didn’t notice until it was too late that my dream girl had masculine hands, an enlarged Adam’s apple and a mustache. I hate you Summer Bird — and I’m not too fond of you either, Tequila.

Fair Odds: 12-1

5. LUV GOV (20/1)

Even if this horse was named “Love Gun” and Gene Simmons was in the saddle, I wouldn’t bet on it. Yeah, I know that Lukas called the son of Ten Most Wanted his “Belmont horse” prior to the running of the Preakness, but I have a gut feeling that, come Sunday morning, Lukas will join me in swearing off Tequila (or whatever else he’s been chugging) for good.

Fair Odds: 30-1

6. CHARITABLE MAN (3/1)

Although I think very highly of Charitable Man’s talent — an opinion definitely shared by his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin — I am concerned that the colt’s last race may have hurt his progression more than it helped. The son of 1999 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid did earn a 98 Beyer for his win in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes on May 9, but the -12 late speed ration (LSR) he garnered that day is hardly the stuff of legends. Plus, I think his early speed could actually be a detriment on Saturday, as I have a sneaking suspicion that the anticipated slow early pace is not going to materialize.

Fair Odds: 9-2

7. MINE THAT BIRD (2/1)

“Mirror, mirror on the wall: Who is the fairest of them all?” If the Queen from the story “Snow White” was seeking a potential overlay in the 2009 Belmont Stakes, she can quit staring at her reflection and, instead, take a peek at the past performances of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Sure, the gelding pulled a stunner in Louisville, but did you see his stretch run in Baltimore? Another 110 yards and we’re discussing the possibility of a Triple Crown. Frankly, I understand why Borel is so confident; he just has to be sure to keep the son of Birdstone in striking distance in case I’m wrong (imagine that) about the pace (see above).

Fair Odds: 8-5

8. FLYING PRIVATE (12/1)

Nice effort from this guy in the Preakness, but his overall record is spotty at best.

Fair Odds: 15-1

9. MINER’S ESCAPE (15/1)

Can owner Robert LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito — the dynamic duo behind last year’s Belmont winner Da’ Tara — strike again? It’s possible. Like Da’ Tara, Miner’s Escape has been steadily improving, as evidenced by the colt’s lifetime-best 89 Beyer and -5 LSR in his stakes debut, the Federico Tesio on May 2. The son of Mineshaft looks like a solid overlay possibility.

Fair Odds: 10-1

10. BRAVE VICTORY (15/1)

What’s a three-year-old classic in New York without multiple LaPenta/Zito entries? Why, it’s like Christmas without Santa Claus. Unfortunately, I’m not as enamored by Brave Victory as I am by his stablemate, Miner’s Escape.

Fair Odds: 20-1

For more on this year’s Test of Champions, including betting suggestions, check out my “Simon Says” podcast.


Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.

The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.
   


The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.
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