I’m not one that likes to make excuses — hence, my aversion to party politics and eating chili at social gatherings — but I’ve got to admit I never thought it would be so difficult to analyze horse races 2-3 days in advance. Yet, when I took on the challenge of writing this column and providing free selections for Youbet.com, that’s exactly what I consigned myself to do. And the results speak for themselves: Since the end of March, I have cashed just three of 22 suggested wagers, while accumulating an ROI so negative that even accountants for Bernie Madoff would probably cringe in shame.

Now, that’s not to say that all my selections have been horrible. Overall, my numbers are still fine (+23.64 percent ROI since I began writing for Youbet in April of 2008) and, obviously, I’ve had a lot of winners that didn’t meet my odds requirements, many due to scratches which would have altered the price I was initially seeking. Still, like Merrill Lynch, I pride myself on the rock-solid financial results I’ve provided my readers (and podcast listeners) over the years… uh, wait… Merrill Lynch is a bad example — but you get the point.

So, starting this week, I’m employing a new selection strategy. From now on, I’m only going to offer wagering opinions on races that I have thoroughly analyzed or that contain “Prime Overlays” or “Key Selections” (two profitable designations on my Win Factor reports). And, if that doesn’t work, I’m going to start a Ponzi scheme. (Note to SEC: The preceding sentence was written entirely in jest and in no way reflects my true thoughts or intentions, either now or in the future).

Top Weekend Plays

07/03/09 — The Meadowlands (race 1): Margarita Momma (WFM Key Selection)
07/04/09 — Delaware Park (race 1): Mt. Ida (WFM Prime Overlay)
07/04/09 — Evangeline Downs (race 5): Pardon My French (WFM Key Selection)

Tough on Top

If you’re looking for interesting races to watch or wager on this weekend, look no further than the $250,000 Salvatore Mile at Monmouth Park. Not only did five of the eight horses entered in that contest earn lifetime-best Beyer speed figures in their latest starts, but the majority of the field seems to share the same running style as well.

Smooth Air, Solar Flare, Kiss the Kid and Keep Laughing all seem to prefer sitting just off the pace, while Runforthedoe and The Roundhouse typically rally from further back. Only Coal Play and Two Step Salsa have shown any desire to carve out the early fractions and Coal Play, in particular, seems to improve by leaps and bounds when he’s on the engine (remember last year’s Haskell?).

Where’s the Pace?

Speaking of pace, it appears to be missing in Saturday’s Monmouth Park feature, the $750,000 United Nations Stakes. Outside of Presious Passion, none of the nine horses entered in the Grade 1 affair were closer than fourth at the first call of their most recent outings. Ironically, Presious Passion took advantage of a similar scenario last year, when he captured the UN in wire-to-wire fashion at nearly 14-1.

Mr. Big Returns to the ‘Big M’

As his name suggests, Mr. Big looms large in the William R. Haughton Memorial Prep at The Meadowlands on Saturday. His Win Factor rating checks in at a gaudy 4.91 (anything over 1.00 is considered outstanding) and he is a Key Selection, as well as a Prime Overlay play, in the $35,000 feature to boot. Other contenders (in order of preference) include Art Official, Bettor Sweet and Winbak Speed.

Trés Bien Arabian

If you like Arabian nights, be sure to check out Saturday’s nightcap at Delaware Park, where the Betsy Ross Distaff Stakes for three-year-old Arabian fillies is scheduled to take place. Although the Tracy Nunley-trained entry of Sand Witchh and Calindaa is favored at 6-5 on the morning line, second choice Uncorked looks best to me.

For more handicapping and betting suggestions, check out this week’s “Simon Says” podcast.