Recently, I’ve been getting a lot of e-mails and “tweats” (comments on Twitter) asking for my opinion on a variety of betting services. Sadly, my replies are always the same, expressing an equal measure of both pessimism and contempt — like an advocate of Thomas Malthus upon meeting the “Octumom.”
The truth is there is no “secret” to playing the races, no “key” to wagering that makes going to the track akin to withdrawing money from an ATM machine. And while I firmly believe that skillful bettors can — and do — beat the game, I seriously doubt that any of them rely exclusively on someone else’s opinion to accomplish the feat.
As I’ve said over and over again — sometimes to myself… in a padded room — there is a reason why so few (if any) public handicappers record their results. It’s because they lose. And if you think I’m being overly cynical, read what Judge Kimball (no first name given) had to say about the arrest of six racetrack touts in Washington D.C. on March 28, 1907:
“Men who ‘follow’ the races are the scourges of the community,” the good judge told the New York Times. “They are a disgrace to the neighborhood which they infest … Touts must be kept out of this city, and it is the purpose of this court to show such men that their presence here is not wanted.”
And people wonder why I have no desire to visit our nation’s capital.
Bet Against the Bird
With the smallest field since 1968 set to contest Saturday’s $750,000 West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park, I’m less than enthusiastic about Mine That Bird’s chances, despite his 4-5 morning line odds.
Following his textbook illustration of the “bid and hang” maneuver in the Belmont Stakes, it is now abundantly clear (if it wasn’t before) that the son of Birdstone is most effective when he’s allowed to drop back early and rally late. But, with just six starters — and only one legitimate frontrunner — entered in Saturday’s West Virginia feature, the question is: will Mine That Bird get the kind of fractions he needs to win? The answer, in my opinion, is “no,” which makes Big Drama (the lone early speed type I referenced above) an intriguing betting proposition.
With six official wins in nine lifetime starts (he finished first but was disqualified and placed second for impeding This Ones for Phil in the Swale Stakes), Big Drama is as game as they come. I was particularly impressed by the colt’s performance in the Preakness Stakes, which, ironically, represents his only out-of-the-money finish to date. In that May 16 contest, despite racing without blinkers for the first time in his career, the son of Montbrook battled with Rachel Alexandra for early supremacy and then held on well in the lane to finish fifth, beaten just 5 1/2 lengths. In his latest trip to post, the David Fawkes trainee easily captured the Red Legend at Charles Town, earning a 105 Beyer speed figure and -8 late speed ration (LSR) in the process.
Others I’ll be keeping tabs on in the Virginia Derby include Soul Warrior, a Zayat Stables colt that appears to be improving under the care of Steve Asmussen, and Monty’s Best, a Reade Baker charge that’s a perfect 2-for-2 as a sophomore.
Heavenville Tops Louisiana Cup Juvenile
Although his overall speed figures have been abysmal, Heavenville’s recent pace numbers lead me to believe he’ll be a tough customer in the Louisiana Cup Juvenile, one of eight stakes races carded for Louisiana-breds at Louisiana Downs on Saturday. The Steve Asmussen runner annexed the D. S. Shine Young Memorial Futurity with a -9 LSR on Independence Day and, before that, earned a -5 LSR against LA-bred allowance foes on June 11. Both races were run at Evangeline Downs.
Another interesting contender in Saturday’s Juvenile is Wholelotaking, who earned a -7 LSR in his career debut (albeit at the abbreviated distance of 4 1/2 furlongs).
Gas on the Grass
It’s not often that one finds a graded turf route featuring a glut of early speed, but that appears to be the case in the $150,000, Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap at Del Mar on Saturday, as both Carlsbad and Oilgonewile have done their best running on the lead.
In fact, the former has only been headed once — at any call — in seven lifetime starts. That was at the finish of the Grade 3 Railbird on May 10, when the Jeff Mullins-trained filly faded in deep stretch after carving out fractions of :21.4 and :44 over Hollywood Park’s all-weather surface. Meanwhile, the former has led at the (official) opening call in 12 of her 13 lifetime starts.
Should those two speedsters hook up early, the San Clemente could set up nicely for Internallyflawless, a talented Bob Baffert trainee that is making her three-year-old debut on Saturday.
Jim Dandy Lures Competitive Field
A highly competitive field of seven has been entered in Saturday’s $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga, headed by Dwyer winner Kensei and Peter Pan champion Charitable Man. Although I’ve been very impressed by Kensei, who brings improving pace figures into this weekend’s contest, the betting side of my brain is most intrigued by Miner’s Escape, who I think could rebound after a horrendous effort in the Belmont Stakes — at what promises to be very obese (I’m trying to be politically correct) odds.
For more handicapping and betting suggestions, check out this week’s “Simon Says” podcast.
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.