With apologies to Ralph Waldo Emerson and old baseball fans, it was the “shock heard ‘round the world,” a victory so miraculous that even Al Michaels probably couldn’t believe it. With a crowd of 153,563 looking on — two of which had backed the winner — Mine That Bird slithered along the Churchill Downs’ rail like the featured act at a bachelor party to score a 6 3/4-length triumph in Kentucky Derby 135 — at odds of 50-1.
The victory was so unexpected that the gelding was three lengths in front of the 19-horse field by the time race caller Tom Durkin even recognized him.
“Down toward the inside, coming on through that is… uh… Mine That Bird, now, who’s coming on to take the lead,” Durkin stammered, adding, “as they come down to the finish in a spectacular, spectacular upset, Mine That Bird has won the Kentucky Derby, an impossible result here.”
Indeed. Not since Giacomo in 2005 had a Derby winner lit up the toteboard like the $9,500 yearling purchase that broke his maiden in a claiming affair and arrived at the home of the Twin Spires following an out-of-the-money finish in the Sunland Derby. Yet, of all the factors — and, obviously, there were many — that made Mine That Bird an outsider on the first Saturday in May 2009, one reigned supreme: frankly, the son of Birdstone simply didn’t look fast enough to win.
From 1992 (when Beyer speed figures first appeared in the Daily Racing Form) until last year, no horse had won the Derby without having earned a Beyer fig of 98 or better prior to competing in the big dance. Mine That Bird’s best Beyer before his romp for the roses was an 81, which he garnered in the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park. Thus, the question must be asked, “have speed ratings become irrelevant as a modern-day handicapping tool?”
Consider: Of the 15 horses that possessed the best last-race Beyers in their respective races on Derby day this year (a trio of steeds tied for that honor in the 10th event, the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic), only three won, returning a total of $17.80. Worse yet, nearly half of those Beyer busts (7) were favored.
The picture wasn’t much prettier on Oaks day, as just two Top Beyer horses found their way to the winner’s circle that afternoon. Among these was Rachel Alexandra, whose $2.60 payoff hardly covered the cost of a small soda, much less the multiple shots of Tequila one would have needed after the last race to numb the pain of betting on the “fastest” horses all day.
Of course, astute gamblers will argue that drawing conclusions from a mere two days’ worth of racing is probably a bit foolhardy — kind of like determining the presence of a track bias after the second race (come on, we’ve all done it). Hence, I decided to dig a little deeper and test the effectiveness of recent speed figures on a much larger database.
Luckily, I’ve tracked my own betting results — more or less — since 2004. During that time I’ve recorded data from 6,322 Thoroughbred races at tracks ranging from Assiniboia Downs and Albuquerque to Belmont Park, Saratoga and Del Mar. The past performances I used are from Trackmaster, a division of Equibase, the largest data provider in the horseracing industry.
I began my studies by looking for the horse(s) that earned the top last-race Trackmaster speed rating in the field:
Number: 7,354*
Winners: 1,892
Success Rate: 25.7%
Return: $12,345.80
Return on Investment (ROI): -16.06%
*This number is greater than the total number of races analyzed due to ties.
By limiting the qualifying steeds to those that raced within the past 30 days, we get the following:
Number: 5,338
Winners: 1,425
Success Rate: 26.7%
Return: $9,465.00
ROI: -11.34%
Notice that, although the ROI is slightly healthier, it is still negative. Interestingly, if one insists that qualifiers boast a speed rating advantage of a point or more (to eliminate ties), the drain on one’s pocketbook is even more pronounced, despite a higher success rate:
Number: 3,902
Winners: 1,103
Success Rate: 28.3%
Return: $6,832.80
ROI: -12.44%
Even more surprising is what happens when one requires qualifying horses to have met or exceeded today’s speed par (a figure provided in most Equibase past performances as well as DRF’s Formulator) in their latest outings:
Number: 2,634
Winners: 763
Success Rate: 29.0%
Return: $4,566.90
ROI: -13.31%
Again, the winning rate went up, yet losses intensified, to the tune of 13 cents per wagered dollar, strengthening the hypothesis that the more obvious an entrant’s speed advantage is, the less betting appeal it’s likely to have.
Does this imply that one can turn a profit on top figure horses when they are overlooked on the toteboard, like those going to post at odds greater than or equal to their morning line prices?
Number: 646
Winners: 91
Success Rate: 14.1%
Return: $1,083.30
ROI: -16.15%
I guess not. Not only does the winning percentage now closely mirror Gary Coleman's chances of being named People Magazine's ”Sexiest Man Alive," but the ROI is also worse than ever before (although it may, in fact, be a truer reflection of My prospects).
So, what does all of this tell us? Well, obviously, the study confirms what many veteran horseplayers already knew — that the easy edges are gone. To beat the races today, gamblers must be willing to consider more obscure factors, seek out new methods and procedures and, generally, be adaptable to the ever-changing racing landscape.
Mastering time travel would also help.
‘Simon Says’ Racing Podcast to Feature Analysis of Weekend Stakes Races
Because the past performances for Saturday’s major stakes races came out later than usual this week, listen to my newest podcast for in-depth analysis of the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, as well as some of the Breeders’ Crown events from The Meadowlands.
Click HERE to listen.
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.