Like Juan Ponce de León’s quest for the Fountain of Youth, Indiana Jones’ hunt for the Holy Grail and Kanye West’s search for an ounce of class or dignity, horseplayers are always on the lookout for a “live” horse. Of course, by “live,” I don’t simply mean an animal that is breathing and moving about — finding such a beast would be easy but pointless, kind of like the majority of Brett Michael’s dating prospects on “Rock of Love.”
No, by “live” I mean a steed that is well meant and able to win the race it has been entered in, preferably at a juicy price. I found just such a contestant in the 6th race at Fort Erie on Tuesday.
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At first glance, it would appear that Timber Doe was fully deserving of the 20-1 odds she was assigned on the morning line. But take a closer look. Observe that Tuesday’s race was restricted to fillies and mares (female horses) that had “started for a claiming price of $10,000 or less in 2008-2009,” a condition that Timber Doe met in her most recent start, when she ran for a $7,500 tag.
And while her effort in that event was, perhaps, a bit uninspired, notice that it came on the dirt (where Timber Doe is winless in four lifetime starts). On the lawn, the daughter of Running Stag was four for eight, leading me to believe that she had been entered on Aug. 11 primarily to qualify for Tuesday’s race, as well as other starter affairs on the grass.
Note that, prior to her last race, the six-year-old mare had been competing against much, much better — at Woodbine, no less — and, in fact, was facing just two multiple turf winners in Tuesday’s Fort Erie contest. Given that, plus a positive trainer switch, Timber Doe looked like a very “live” horse to me — and she was, drawing clear in the stretch to score by 1 ½ lengths and pay a generous $20.50.
Aah, it’s great to be a “live.”
Pennsylvania Day at Philly Park
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: I love statebred stakes races at smaller tracks. And when such races are carded throughout the day… why, I get so excited I could drink a jug of wine and mow the lawn nude — which, according to my ever-so-cynical wife, is why we don’t have any friends (although our yard looks great).
Nonetheless, I’ll be making a trek to the liquor store to pick up a case of Boone’s this weekend, as it’s Pennsylvania Day at the Races at Philadelphia Park on Saturday. The Philly Park program — say that after a few bottles of Boone’s — features five added-money events for Pennsylvania-breds. Below is a sneak peek at a couple of the races:
Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009
7th Philadelphia Park. $125,000 Smarty Jones Classic. 1 1/16 miles (dirt).
The morning line favorites in the Smarty Jones Classic — Disco T (3/1) and Serene Harbor (4/1) — look vulnerable to me, as does last year’s champ Delaware River (12/1). Thus, I’m leaning toward outsiders SUNSHINE BERNIE, ST JOHN’S GOSPEL and SWEET SUGAR.
Although Sunshine Bernie hasn’t posted the kind of speed figures needed to win this event, his trainer, Andrew Carter, is sensational with stakes runners and the price promises to be enticing.
St John’s Gospel is 6-1 on the morning line, yet posted a career-best 88 Beyer speed figure and -3 late speed ration (LSR) in his only route attempt (the Private Terms at Laurel on March 21), while Sweet Sugar possesses the best overall LSRs in the field.
10th Philadelphia Park. $250,000 PTHA President’s Cup. 1 1/8 miles (turf).
This 1 1/8-mile turf affair drew absolutely no early speed types, save for R J’S BRIGADE, who took advantage of a similar paceless scenario at Belmont Park on June 28 to post 1 ¾-length score in a $35,000 claiming event. That said, it’s worth noting that SOLDIER’S DANCER overcame a :53 1/5 opening half-mile to capture this event last year and seems poised to do so again.
Find Your Thrill; Bet Against Muscle Hill
Show bettors might want to keep an eye on the $1,000,000 Canadian Trotting Classic final, where Muscle Hill has been made an early 1-5 favorite to stay perfect in 2009. I’m betting — quite literally — that a winning show ticket on one of the other entrants will return more than Muscle Hill will to win (provided, of course, that he does). My short list of show candidates includes Explosive Matter, Judge Joe and Southern Rocketop.
For more on the Canadian Trotting Classic, be sure to listen to this week’s “Simon Says” podcast, which features harness racing expert and fellow Youbet.com contributor Frank Cotolo.
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.