Sometimes, I don’t know when to shut up. Yes, I know, regular readers of this column are undoubtedly shocked by this admission — any minute now, I expect one or both of them to tug at my shirtsleeve and beg me to “say it ain’t so.” But it is. Recently, perhaps out of boredom or perhaps because I’m a masochist, I decided to wade into the wild and wacky world of forums and message boards and spread my gambling gospel. My plan was to post some free horseracing plays along with a few of my reports from time to time.
Well, like a guy wearing a New York Yankees’ cap into a Boston bar, I was foolish enough to offer my decidedly negative opinion on public handicappers that offer 3-4 selections in a race with, as I put it, “no coherent betting strategy.” Of course, this made me Public Enemy No. 1 with some of the forum posters — specifically those that were offering 3-4 selections in every race with no coherent betting strategy… oops, I did it again.
Honestly, I’m not trying to be disagreeable — I’m saving that for my retirement — but I truly believe that this type of reckless play from folks who call themselves experts squashes interest in horse racing, at least from a gambling perspective. Look, it’s no secret that touts have been around for as long as the Sport of Kings itself. Years ago, tipsters would approach a variety of racetrack patrons and, for a cut of the booty, offer them a “sure winner” in an upcoming race. Of course, each “sure winner” was different, thus, the touts profited regardless of which steed won (today, those touts are called stockbrokers — just kidding, sort of).
However, the difference between touts of yesteryear and those operating today is that, now, there are far more ways to lose one’s proverbial shirt. In the past, the standard racetrack betting fare consisted of win, place and show wagering, plus a daily double or two. These days, most tracks offer exactas and/or trifectas on every race, along with quinellas, superfectas and rolling pick-3s, pick-4s and pick-6s.
Hence, blindly betting on multiple contenders can get very expensive, very quickly. As proof, take a look at the results from Fairplex Park on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009:
Frankly, this was a fairly typical day. Four of the 12 races were won by the race favorite (33%) and the average win mutual was a reasonably healthy (considering the field sizes) $7.70. However, if one was betting three horses in every race, check out the success rates needed just to break even. And, while you do, keep in mind that, according to studies done by Dr. William Quirin, Huey Mahl, William Scott and others, one of the top three betting choices wins approximately 2/3 of all races. Hence, achieving the 77.9% winning rate needed to break even betting three horses to win at Fairplex Park on Sept. 19, 2009, ventures into the realm of capturing Bigfoot, netting the Loch Ness Monster or chatting with little green men from Mars.
Who, outside of Norman Bates, would take even (1-1) odds on a daily double, 8-5 on an exacta or 2-1 on a pick-3? It’s nuts, I tell you. Yet, that’s precisely what many “experts” advocate when they advise players to randomly box exactas or to use multiple horses (without regard to probable odds) in a pick-3 or pick-4 sequence.
And, please, don’t buy into the notion that you have to accept whatever the price happens to be. That’s like paying $200 for a roll of toilet paper because the tag said so — the only people who do that are government officials and (certain) CEOs. Making money at the track or, I should say, avoiding financial ruin at the track, requires that one spend one’s money wisely. Boxing favorites in exactas or playing a pick-3 sequence using 3-4 horses in every leg — every time — is not fiscally prudent.
Although it might make you a horseracing expert.
For more on this topic, be sure to listen to this week’s “Simon Says” podcast.
Maryland Million Day Takes Place on Saturday
The 24th edition of Maryland Million Day, which features 12 added-money events for horses sired by a stallion standing in the state of Maryland, takes place on Saturday at Laurel Park. Below is a peek at some of the races, along with my initial fair betting odds:
LAUREL * Race 2 (68%) * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
1-SUMACHA'HOT (7/5)
Fair Odds: 9-5
4-GAMMY'S A WINNER (5/2)
Fair Odds: 2-1
3-HAM AND ERNIE (9/2)
Fair Odds: 6-1
LAUREL * RACE 3 (80%) * $100,000 Purse * 8.0 Furlongs * Dirt
1-BLIND DATE (7/5)
Fair Odds: 7-5
5-LOVE THAT DANCE (5/2)
Fair Odds: 7-2
8-BRIGHT GEM (5/1)
Fair Odds: 11-1
Fair $1 Exacta Prices: 1-5 ($7), 1-8 ($18), 1-3 ($18), 5-1 ($10), 5-8 ($48) and 5-3 ($48).
LAUREL * Race 6 (70%) * $100,000 Purse * 5.5 Furlongs * Turf
1A-HEROS REWARD (3/5)
Fair Odds: 7-5
1-LOVE YOU TOO (3/5)
Fair Odds: 7-5
8-NATURAL SEVEN (8/1)
Fair Odds: 10-1
Fair $1 Exacta Prices: 1/1A-8 ($17), 1/1A-9 ($23), 8-1/1A ($26) and 9-1/1A ($36).
LAUREL * Race 11 (49%) * $200,000 Purse * 9.0 Furlongs * Dirt
1-BROADWAY PRODUCER (9/5)
Fair Odds: 5-2
10-SWEET GOODBYE (8/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
2-CUBA (8/1)
Fair Odds: 5-1
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.