Last week, I noted that I had been holed up in my “betting bat cave” preparing for this year’s Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita on Nov. 6-7.
It was a lie, a bitter hoax.
I don’t have a cave in my home, nor are there a bunch of winged rodents flying about. The truth is I made up all that stuff in hopes of landing my own reality TV show — pathetic, I know, but my original plan, which involved my kids and a homemade weather balloon, seemed too far-fetched to work. Hence, I was desperate.
Nonetheless, I did tell the truth about the BC studies I’ve been conducting. And, this week, I thought I would share some results of that research with you, my future television audience. Fortunately, I have Equibase past performance data for all of the Breeders’ Cup races since 2003 — a total of 56 championship events.
In my first experiment, I examined horses that earned a Trackmaster® speed rating in their last start that was equal to or greater than the par for the BC race in which they competed. I think the results may surprise you.
Number of runners (races): 101 (44)
Winners: 10
Return: $95.00
ROI: -52.97%
Clearly, recent speed is overrated when it comes to picking a Breeders’ Cup winner. So too is current form, it would appear. Check out the stats on horses that finished out of the money (worse than third) in their final BC prep:
Number of runners (races): 143 (51)
Winners: 7
Return: $303.20
ROI: +6.01%
Maybe Mine That Bird’s sixth-place finish in the Goodwood wasn’t such a bad thing after all…
Gitano Hernando Out of BC Classic
And speaking of the Goodwood, according to Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form, the 18-1 upset winner of that race, Gitano Hernando, will not compete in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic — or any other BC race. Instead, the three-year-old son of Hernando will return to England, where he will gear up for next year’s Dubai World Cup.
“The colt just ran too hard last time and we don't feel comfortable bringing him back in a month,” said Barry Irwin, head of Team Valor, the group that owns Gitano Hernando. “We feel that he is a prime candidate for the World Cup in Dubai next spring and that the risk to the colt by running him back at such a high level next time is too great.”
Well, I guess it’s true what they say (whoever “they” are): discretion really is the better part of Valor.
Raven’s Run Looks Wide Open
Saturday’s $300,000, Grade 2 Raven’s Run, carded for seven furlongs on Keeneland’s main (synthetic) track, looks ripe for an upset. Two fillies, in particular, caught my eye as I perused the past performances — Jerry Jamgotchian’s Satans Quick Chick and Padua Stables’ Jardin.
The former is coming off of a brutal trip against older foes in the H.P.B.A. Stakes at Presque Isle Downs on Sept. 26, where she finished sixth after getting pinched at the break and rallying extremely wide. Before that debacle, however, the daughter of Sky Mesa posted a race-best 100 Beyer speed figure and -3 late speed ration (LSR) in an allowance win over the same track and distance.
Jardin also had trouble at the start of her most recent race, as she stumbled leaving the gate in a six-furlong allowance affair at Belmont Park on Sept. 17. Yet, the Thomas Albetrani-trained filly still managed to grab the early lead and win going away, while posting a career-best — by 16 points — 84 Beyer fig that day. Last year, Jardin captured the Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes and placed in the Grade 1 Spinaway (both at Saratoga).
The Raven’s Run field, along with the morning line odds:
1. Best Lass (5/1)
2. Just Jenda (4/1)
3. Satans Quick Chick (20/1)
4. Pretty Prolific (8/1)
5. Jardin (15/1)
6. Moontune Missy (15/1)
7. All of Her Twist (20/1)
8. Flashing (3/1)
9. Slides Choice (15/1)
10. Ivory Empress (15/1)
11. Sky Haven (8/1)
12. Lady’s Laughter (15/1)
13. Strike the Bell (20/1)
14. Don’ttalktome (30/1)
15. Saucey Evening (15/1)
16. Devil by Design (15/1)
Breeders Crown Day at Woodbine
One of the keys to making a profit playing the ponies is to identify viable overlays, especially in marquee affairs like the Breeders’ Cup. My Win Factor Method Supreme Overlay plays, which normally produce a 25-30% ROI, have accumulated a 174.13% ROI in 20 BC races since 2003. Of course, they don’t win very often — only about 10% of the time — but when they do…
With this in mind, I took a look at Saturday’s Breeders’ Crown (the standardbred equivalent of the Breeders’ Cup) races from Woodbine Harness. Listed below are some potential Supreme Overlay plays, along with their fair odds:
Race #2
7-Ginger And Fred (8-1 fair odds)
4-Special Sweetheart (10-1)
8-Blogette Hanover (15-1)
5-Shanghai Lil (15-1)
Race #3
1-Muscle Hill (4-5; Key Selection)
3-Tom Cango (9-1)
2-Hot Shot Blue Chip (21-1)
Note: Watch the place and show pools in this event. Consider betting Tom Cango and/or Hot Shot Blue Chip to place/show if Muscle Hill controls more than 75% of the pool(s).
Race #4
1-Costa Rica (6-1)
5-Fashion Feline (15-1)
8-Action Broadway (24-1)
Race #5
8-Hard Livin (13-1)
Race #9
2-Mr Wiggles (6-1)
4-Dial Or Nodial (6-1)
6-If I Can Dream (8-1)
7-Carnivore (15-1)
8-Bay Of Sharks (21-1)
1-Keep It Real (22-1)
5-Annieswesterncard (22-1)
Remember, these horses are merely suggested alternatives to the race favorite(s). As their fair odds suggest, they score about as often as Gary Coleman, but it only takes one to make for a great night (I’m sure Mr. Coleman would agree).
Currently a full-time freelance business/sports writer, Derek has been published by Motley Fool, Newsmax, Dulcinea Media, iStockAnalyst, Beacon Equity Research and a host of other online and offline venues.
The opinions of Youbet Update writers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Youbet.com or its subsidiaries.