It’s finally here. This weekend the 26th incarnation of John Gaines’ 1982 brainchild is scheduled to take place Nov. 6-7 at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Cal. The two-day extravaganza, which features 14 championship races — 13 of which will offer a purse of $1 million or more — is being held at The Great Race Place for the second year in a row and presents handicappers with the added challenge of a synthetic main track once again.

Long known for its innovative use of silicone, the state of California has also been a pioneer in “fake” dirt, or all-weather racing surfaces (yeah, I know, it’s like comparing apples to… oh, never mind). At Santa Anita, the faux soil is called “Pro-Ride” and, last year, many believe it contributed to a glut of late-running Breeders’ Cup winners. In ’08, only Midshipman managed to secure a BC victory after contesting the early fractions (Midshipman captured the Juvenile in wire-to-wire fashion).

Horses that last raced on real dirt also appeared to be at a disadvantage on the Pro-Ride surface last year, as the following chart aptly demonstrates:

Will history repeat itself in 2009? Personally, I doubt it, but players (and player haters, for that matter) would be wise to watch the races carefully and adjust their handicapping as conditions warrant.

Now, let’s take a look at some other recent betting trends:

Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf

Although it’s still too early to tell, I’m guessing that the juvenile turf events will be similar to other races run on the lawn — stressing late speed and, perhaps, to a lesser degree, class. Below are some statistics to ponder before investing your green on the green.

Since 2003:

• Horses that earned a late speed ration (LSR) of -5 or less in their last start have gone 1-for-39 in BC turf routes, with Artie Schiller (2005 Mile) the only winner.
• Grass runners that recorded an LSR of -5 or less in their final prep without a corresponding early speed ration (ESR) of -5 or less were winless in 36 starts on the sod. Only Honey Ryder in the 2007 Filly & Mare Turf and Kip Deville in last year’s Mile even placed.
•  Horses with the top Win Factor Method (WFM) Class Rating (of at least 0.10) were 12-4-6-8 in Breeders’ Cup turf affairs. On dirt, their record was 8-1-2-5.
• Entrants that last raced over a dirt or synthetic surface were 19-0-0-1 in lawn events.

Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies

Not surprisingly, pace figures have been less helpful in juvenile events run on the main track — all-weather tracks included (at least so far). Last year, five horses earned “good” to “excellent” LSRs (-5 or higher) in their final BC preps. All five of them lost and only two — Square Eddie and Street Hero — even hit the board. Hence, the most effective way of tackling two-year-old tests is by concentrating on other factors it would seem.

Since 2003:

•  Freshmen that were favored in their most recent race have won six of the last 15 juvenile events while yielding a 20.6% ROI. On the other side of the coin, horses that went to post at odds of 15-1 or greater in their last start have scored just once (in 11 races) over the past six years.
•  Juveniles that last competed in a sprint (a race of less than eight furlongs) were a combined 33-3-8-10 in Breeders’ Cup events. Those coming off a race of less than seven furlongs fared even worse (14-0-1-1). 
• No maiden has hit the board (finished third or better) in any Breeders’ Cup contest.
• Youngsters that finished out of the money (worse than third) in their most recent try have accumulated a 32-0-1-2 record against BC competition.

Ladies Classic (formerly known as the Distaff)

Traditionally, the Ladies Classic, or Distaff (as it was called from 1984 to 2007), has been a very formful race, with 11 of the 25 previous editions (44%) having been taken by the race favorite. Some other numbers to nibble on…

Since 2003:

• Of the 44 entrants that were NOT favored in their final prep, three won the Ladies Classic — all at very nice prices. Adoration paid $83.40 to win in 2003, Pleasant Home returned $63.50 in 2005 and Round Pond yielded a $29.80 mutuel in 2006.
• Fillies or mares that faced fewer than five rivals in their most recent start have won just once in the past five years (there were no qualifiers in ‘03), returning $3.00 (the lone winner’s name starts with a “Z” by the way).
•  Gals that earned a last-race LSR ranked among the top four in the Ladies Classic field have accumulated a record of 26-4-9-11 and offered ROIs of 199.8%, 126.9% and 82.1% on win, place and show bets respectively.

Sprint, Filly & Mare Sprint and Turf Sprint

The sprint events have produced some of the greatest performances — and biggest payoffs — in Breeders’ Cup history. Let’s take a closer look.

Since 2003:

• Betting EVERY entrant across the board in all nine BC sprint affairs over the past six years would have yielded ROIs of 10.0% to win, 15.8% to place and 7.8% to show.
• Horses dropping from routes (race of eight furlongs or more) were an impressive 8-2-3-4 in BC sprint events. Conversely, animals attempting to stretch out (tackle a longer distance) were just 20-0-2-3.
• Sprint steeds that were favored in their most recent outing have accumulated a record of 36-2-6-9 versus Breeders’ Cup company.

Mile

One of the most highly anticipated BC events, the Mile has had three repeat winners — the filly Miesque in 1987 and 1988, Lure in 1992 and 1993 and Da Hoss in 1996 and 1998. Will Goldikova be the fourth?

Since 2003:

•  Like the Turf (see below), the Mile has not been kind to recent winners, as just two of 27 entrants made it to the winner’s circle after triumphing in their previous start.
•  Horses trying the Mile immediately following a prep at a different distance have failed to place (finish first or second) in 20 attempts.
• Although horses with the top Trackmaster speed rating are winless since 2004 (the year Trackmaster first assigned figures to foreign races), they have finished third or better five times, producing an ROI of 62.2% when bet to show.

Turf

The premier American grass event has witnessed some fantastic finishes, including a dead heat between defending champ High Chaparral and Johar in 2003. It is also a race replete with form reversals — both good and bad, as the figures below clearly illustrate.

Since 2003:

• Only three animals — the aforementioned Johar, English Channel (2007) and Conduit (last year) — managed to annex the Turf after finishing first or second in their previous start. On the other hand, horses that finished third or worse in their final prep have generated an 85.2% ROI (when bet to win) over the last six years.
• Turf runners that were favored in their last start have won only twice, costing their backers 65.7% per wager. Conversely, non-favored entrants that were at least 3-1 in their final prep have generated a profit of 113.7% per win bet.

Classic

Outside of the Turf Sprint, which had its inaugural running last year, the Classic has produced the highest average mutuel of any Breeders’ Cup race.

Since 1984:

• Four (of 16) supplemental entrants have won the Classic — good for a 232.5% ROI.
• Only one horse has captured the Classic after finishing off the board in its most recent start. Of course, that beast was Arcangues, who paid a BC-record $269.20 to win.

Since 1991:

• No horse has won the Classic after recording an LSR of -15 or less in its final prep.
• 10 of 18 Classic conquerors were favored in their latest start, while all 18 were 3-1 or less.

Since 2003:

• Three of the past five Classic winners possessed the best last-race Trackmaster speed figure.
• WFM overlays with fair odds of less than 15-1 have been victorious in three of the last six BC Classics, producing a win profit of 84.7% over that period.

Before I conclude, let me briefly explain the pace figures I referenced throughout this piece. They are my own creation, discovered many years ago while I worked part-time as a barber — before a bunch of bald-headed malcontents got me fired (just kidding, they only wished they were bald).

Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

-15 = Demanding
-10 = Brisk
  -5 = Moderate
   0 = Soft

Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event.

   0 = Excellent
  -5 = Good
-10 = Fair
-15 = Poor

Unfortunately, at the time this goes to press, I don’t have the data files necessary to compute either my pace figures or my Win Factor fair odds line. But, if you visit the free picks page, I will be offering some or all of that information when it becomes available.

Have a great Breeders’ Cup everybody!