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Free Weekend Win Factor Report (WFR) Plays

As I have been in a free selection slump of late, I took my own advice from a recent podcast and searched for solid races yielding higher-percentage plays at decent prices. Hopefully, I found some.

Delaware Park (09/04/10)

Race 6 * 6.0 Furlongs  * Dirt
      
6-Comet of Love (9/2)
Fair Odds: 5-2
7-R U Segura (3/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
8-Sweet Joni M (4/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1

COMMENTS: COMET OF LOVE fits the conditions perfectly and may offer some value, despite the very real possibility of a "mathematical bounce.” Trainer Scott Lake wins about a third of the time in cheap claiming sprints with horses showing ascending Beyer figures, as is the case with RU SEGURA. The son of Tiger Ridge also figures to control the pace, making him a huge threat. SWEET JONI M takes a parachute class drop.
     
BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 5-2 or greater and/or WIN on 7 at odds of 3-1 or greater.      

Delaware Park (09/04/10)
Race 10 * 8.0 Furlongs  * Arabians
      
1-Richly Kept (5/2)
Fair Odds: 5-2      
3-Tri Silkie Sands (8/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1      
4-Sanddpiper (7/5)
Fair Odds: 2-1      
      
COMMENTS: RICHLY KEPT is improving and figures to get a beautiful, stalking trip. Trainer of TRI SILKIE SANDS is a dismal 0-for-17 when trying a route for the first time, but horse is very talented. SANDDPIPER has poor overall late speed rations (LSRs) and ran poorly in her first route attempt; worth taking a stand against, despite her speed figure dominance against these.

BET(S): WIN on 1 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

Saratoga (09/04/10)
Race 9 * 7.0 Furlongs  * Dirt
      
6-Omniscient (12/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
2-Bribon (4/1)
Fair Odds: 7-2      
1-Vineyard Haven (2/1)
Fair Odds: 5-2      
      
COMMENTS: Yeah, I know, there are better horses than OMNISCIENT in this field, but I love the cutback in distance and the -1 LSR last time… oh, and I’m pretty sure the price will be good too. BRIBON can certainly move forward off his latest and is the only horse to have ever matched today’s Beyer par. VINEYARD HAVEN is sure to be tighter on Saturday and figures to be on or near the lead, but he’s no cinch and could, in fact, be an underlay.

BET(S): WIN & PLACE on 6 at odds of 8-1 or greater.

Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

Races (Selections): 52 (52)
Wins:  20
Rate:  38.5%
Return:  $149.80
ROI:  +44.04%
 
(This year's published selections through 08/06/10.)

Freehold Fri. 9/3

Race 8
4-Winuendo  

Yonkers Fri. 9/3

Race 4
3-Blacktuxwhitesox  

Race 5 
2-Whata Winner

Race 7 
3-RC Gallent Image

Race 8 
1-Waldorf Hall

Meadows Sat. 9/4

Race 2 
3-Crown Laurel  

Race 4 
6-Baximum

Race 7 
4-Europan Union

Mohawk Sun. 9/5 

Race 8 
7-Put On A Show  

Case The Race measures the athletic ability of a thoroughbred. So whether you are a speed, pace, or class player, or maybe have your own approach, Case The Race offers you new data that will work with whatever you are doing now. Case The Race technology is based on a science called equine biomechanics and proprietary processes it has developed to produce a truly different set of handicapping data – data that can help any handicapping strategy and any level of player. Check out the Case The Race, “Race of the Day” below.

Race of the Day:
Del Mar

Del Mar--8th race (Del Mar Debutatnte)
 
Good, competitive field for this year's Debutante in which I will give the slight edge to morning line favorite WICKEDLY PERFECT (3-1). She's unbeaten in two starts and showed real gameness in taking the Sorrento earlier in the meet.
 
LAST WEEK'S RESULT: THE USUAL Q. T. ran out in Pacific Classic.