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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
October 26th, 2023
The 4-3 Buffalo Bills host the 3-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football at Orchard Park, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Below we look at three prop bets to wager on Thursday's Week 8 matchup between quarterback Josh Allen and veteran Baker Mayfield, and create a three-leg same-game parlay you can play as a no-sweat bet at sportsbooks like DraftKings (opt-in required).
#NewProfilePic 😁 #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/nRFUqUtNTd— Dalton Kincaid (@_DaltonKincaid) April 30, 2023
#NewProfilePic 😁 #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/nRFUqUtNTd
Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid hauled in a career- and game-high 75 receiving yards in Buffalo's 29-25 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 7. He could enjoy a similar performance on Thursday as he faces the Bucs, who allow an average of 46 receiving yards to tight ends and rank 27th against the pass, surrendering 246.7 yards per contest.
With Dawson Knox out of the lineup Thursday due to a wrist injury, Kincaid should see an increase in target share. Last week, he caught all eight of his targets, and he's only failed to reel in two of his 27 targets all season. He should easily exceed 40 receiving yards on Thursday.
The #Bills will be without tight end Dawson Knox this week leaving rookie Dalton Kincaid as the TE1. Though the Bills lost, Kincaid had his best performance of the season against the Patriots finishing with 8 receptions for 75 yards. How do you think Kincaid will play tonight… pic.twitter.com/tkuqynbNmb— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) October 26, 2023
The #Bills will be without tight end Dawson Knox this week leaving rookie Dalton Kincaid as the TE1. Though the Bills lost, Kincaid had his best performance of the season against the Patriots finishing with 8 receptions for 75 yards. How do you think Kincaid will play tonight… pic.twitter.com/tkuqynbNmb
Where the Bucs excel on defense is against the run, with the unit ranking 10th in rushing yards allowed (95.8) and 11th in opponent rushing yards per attempt (3.8). They also permit 12.7 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs.
Allen has surpassed 24 rushing yards twice this season, and in his last four games, he's run for 17, 11, 14, and 17 yards. The QB will likely have his way through the air, eliminating much need to move the chains with his feet.
Take the Under on his rushing yards against a unit that held Justin Fields to a season-low three yards on four attempts.
When it comes to the Bucs offense, Tampa Bay averages just 77.8 rushing yards per game (fourth fewest in the league), but Thursday's matchup with the Bills is a prime opportunity to do some damage on the ground.
The Bills are the 10th-worst team against the run and have allowed an opposing running back to rush for 70 or more yards in all but two games this season. Tampa Bay back Rachaad White has confronted a top-15 rushing defense in every game this season, but he managed to put up 73 yards on the Bears' fifth-ranked run-stop unit and rushed for 56 yards against New Orleans. Against a bottom-10 rushing defense, he could be in for a big night.
Take the plus-odds on White over 50 rushing yards against the Bills on Thursday.
Kincaid Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115) + Allen Under 24.5 rushing yards (-110) + White 50+ rushing yards (+105) = +500
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