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Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) before a game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)
October 27th, 2023
Let’s focus on a four-team teaser play in Week 8 of the NFL.
Teasers adjust point spreads in the bettor’s favor, providing an opportunity to play multiple games in a single bet without being locked into the existing odds in a standard parlay. Payouts are lower, but the win probability increases.
I favor the six-point teaser option, nearly 40% of the games have been decided by six points or less in the NFL this season, and the following four-team teaser parlay pays out at +260 ($100 to win returns $360 including investment).
Miami 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 homes games, they host New England in a favorable spot. The Dolphins will be motivated following a 14-point loss to Philadelphia in which they were their own worst enemy at times, penalized 10 times compared to none for their opponent. Miami has played better defensively, holding Philly’s formidable ground game to 99 rushing yards and forcing two turnovers last week, and New England has every reason to be flat following an emotional win over Buffalo that ended speculation surrounding Bill Belichick being fired in-season. The Patriots have struggled this setting, going 2-8 ATS over the last 10 games in Miami, and the Dolphins will win comfortably even if Tyreek Hill is sidelined by injury.
Kansas City 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings between teams, winning the last eight in Denver by more than a 12-point average margin, and Denver has not been good at home this year despite a desperate win over Green Bay last week, outscored by nearly a field goal in the four home tilts while posting a 1-3 ATS mark. It’s a similar spot for Denver as New England – we like to play against bad/marginal teams off hard-fought wins that snap losing streaks. Kansas City’s top 10-ranked defense has not allowed more than 20 points in a game this year, they’re poised for a strong showing on Sunday.
LET'S GOOOOOO DEFENSE 🗣— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 26, 2023
LET'S GOOOOOO DEFENSE 🗣
Washington’s defense remains formidable despite opening with a 3-4 SU record, but their offense was anemic in the last two home games, failing to stay competitive in blowout losses to Buffalo and Chicago, and the Commanders scored only seven points at the Giants last week. These teams tend to play each other close though, with Washington taking Philadelphia to OT earlier this season, and the Eagles haven’t been sharp offensively, committing six combined turnovers in the last two games. Let’s side with the under, which is a profitable 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 Washington home games. The under has delivered a 7-1 ATS record from the last eight games when Washington is an underdog of six or more points.
Danny Jones appears unlikely to play at quarterback, which should favor the Jets, but favorites have struggled statistically in low-scoring games. Difficult to envision many points being scored given the low-scoring nature of both teams, with the Giants averaging a league-worst 12.1 points per game and the Jets ranking in the bottom 10 with an 18.7-point average. The under has appeal. Both teams will rely on defense and run game, and the Giants have the best under record in the NFL at MetLife Stadium since 2020. The under has gone 18-4-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 24 home games.
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