NCAAB: Villanova vs. UConn odds, preview, and pick

The third-ranked Villanova Wildcats take to the road on Thursday night to take on their conference rival, the Connecticut Huskies.

Villanova is 10-1 overall, first in the Big East, and is fresh off a commanding 15-point win against Providence. The Wildcats' only loss of the season came in their second game, an overtime loss against a dangerous Virginia Tech Hokies team that shot 50% from downtown.

The Connecticut Huskies, meanwhile, are 8-3 overall, fourth in the Big East, and enter off a 12-point win against Butler.

Gillespie has been rock solid for the Wildcats

Villanova head coach Jay Wright doesn’t field a deep roster, opting to play just seven players double digit minutes per game, but he gets significant contributions from that group. The player that leads the lineup is senior guard, Collin Gillespie, who averages 15.9 points per game, and is among the favorites for the Bob Cousy Award.

The Huskies' schedule has been erratic

For Connecticut, a disjointed mid-season bout with COVID-19 has undoubtedly affected the team's rhythm, but the Huskies' ceiling appears high. They have three losses on the season, but two of those are against highly-ranked Creighton. The other, against St John's, was a four-point loss sandwiched between postponed games. They have impressive victories against USC and at Marquette, and haven’t lost by more than double-digits this year.

UConn will miss Bouknight's production

Connecticut’s star was rising sophomore James Bouknight, but he has been forced to undergo elbow surgery, and is out for the time being. He was averaging 20.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game pre-injury. With his absence, the Huskies may have to turn into a more defensively-focused team. They have already been more efficient on defense than offense, coming in 22nd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings.

When these teams meet, the challenge that Connecticut will face is finding a way to keep pace offensively with a Villanova offense that ranks fourth in overall efficiency numbers. As is typical with Wright’s teams, the Wildcats are an excellent three-point shooting squad that shoots 44.8% from deep.

Connecticut, in contrast, shoots just 34.4% from beyond the arc. Without the playmaking Bouknight to force things towards the basket, I expect UConn to struggle mightily. This is shaping up to be a decisive double-digit win, Connecticut’s first such loss of the season.

Score prediction: Villanova 81, Connecticut 65

NCAAB pick: Villanova