ACC Championship odds and preview: #23 Virginia vs. #3 Clemson

The ACC Championship Game will take place Saturday night, and it’s safe to assume the straight-up winner. Clemson enters undefeated and 9-3 against the spread. Virginia won an exciting home rivalry matchup and broke a 15-year winless streak against Virginia Tech in Week 14 to clinch their spot in this game. Virginia 9-3 straight-up and 6-5 against the spread.

#23 Virginia vs. #3 Clemson, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Clemson has been overlooked all season

The fact that Clemson has a 9-3 ATS record is remarkable. Defending national champions typically see their spreads inflated and Clemson has blown past most of those numbers. The Tigers have scored 38, 52, 55, 59, 59, 45 and 45 points in their last seven games, six of which were against ACC competition. In last year’s title game, they defeated Virginia, 59-10. There is little reason to think Clemson won’t surpass 40 points at minimum Saturday night.

Perkins deserves credit for Virginia's strong play

Virginia has shown impressive and steady improvement during head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure, and dual-threat quarterback Bryce Perkins has been largely responsible for the success in the program the last two seasons.

But this is without a doubt a step up in class for a program that has only faced one team remotely comparable to Clemson this year. Against Notre Dame, Virginia struggled mightily with pass blocking and gave up eight sacks. Perkins also struggled to take care of the ball, with two interceptions and three fumbles in that game. While Perkins has shown continued growth since that early season matchup, I expect him to struggle with a Clemson defense that knows exactly what to expect from him. There is also the possibility of a letdown after such an emotional victory just a week ago.

Don't expect Swinney to show any mercy

It seems a bit absurd to give 28 points in a conference championship game, but Clemson laying 30 points or less to any team within this conference is worth a wager. The Tigers are head and shoulders above their competition and have demonstrated the ability to score at will. While they are unlikely to surpass Ohio State for the College Football Playoff Committee’s No. 1 seed, bettors can be confident head coach Dabo Swinney will not call off the dogs if they're up big. Clemson has been decimating everyone in its path, and I see little reason that will end in this matchup.

Pick: Clemson -28

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