Big 12 football picks: Baylor and Oklahoma look to stay on top

A week after their massive showdown, the Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears will host dangerous challengers and hope to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

A loss for either opens the door for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who currently sit two games back in the conference standings and, thanks to their game against Oklahoma in the final week of the season, are really the only team with a longshot chance of sneaking into the title game. Texas has a slim shot if it can knock off the Bears this week, but would need a lot of help.

It is a pivotal weekend in conference play, and we are here to help you win some money while watching these tense matchups.

#21 Oklahoma State (-6) at West Virginia, noon ET, ESPN2

Both teams have quite a bit to play for this weekend, in what should be an entertaining game. The Cowboys must win this game to keep their conference championship hopes alive. The Mountaineers can make a bowl game with wins in their final two games, which would be a significant achievement in Neal Brown’s first season in charge.

The big story leading up to this game is the loss of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders, who had surgery on this thumb this week and will miss the rest of the season. Dru Brown, a graduate transfer from Hawaii who gained more than 5,400 yards and racked up 40 touchdowns in his two seasons there, could step in, but his availability is also in question this weekend.

Brown will have a lot more weapons than he had out west, particularly running back Chuba Hubbard, who leads the nation in rushing yardage and will be relied upon heavily in this game.

West Virginia is coming off of a win over Kansas State. It was the Mountaineers' best rushing performance since they defeated Kansas and was a positive step for one of the worst rushing teams in the nation. The win ended a five-game losing streak and gave them a small chance to salvage their season. It also featured the debut of quarterback Jarret Doege, who threw for three touchdowns in place of Austin Kendall.

The better play here is the favorite on the road. Oklahoma State has covered in four of its last five against the Mountaineers, and four of the Cowboys' last five games on the road have also been covers. With the small window they still have to ruin Oklahoma's season, they will be ready for this one and should pull away in the second half.

Pick: Oklahoma State -6

Texas at #14 Baylor (-5), 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Win and you’re in. It’s that simple for the Bears, who will look to rebound after they let a 25-point lead slip away last weekend against Oklahoma. After they rallied from behind to keep their unbeaten record intact in multiple games, the Bears could not find their offense in the second half against the Sooners and were on the other side of the comeback for once.

Now they'll host Texas, whose offense wasn’t so great last week against Iowa State. The Longhorns’ run game was shut down, which limited the effectiveness of their play-action passing attack. While Oklahoma was able to hit some big runs last week, the Bears mostly contained the rushing attack and held the Sooners to 4.4 yards per attempt. A repeat of that this weekend would go a long way toward keeping Texas in the loss column.

The Longhorns' defensive struggles are well known, and they will face a very balanced Baylor attack that ranks 38th in the nation in passing and 44th in rushing (15th most yards per snap). Even if the Longhorns are able to put up points against the Bears, the Texas defense looks ill equipped to slow down the opposition.

Look for the Bears to cover for the seventh time in their last nine conference games to secure a rematch with the Sooners.

Pick: Baylor -5

TCU at #9 Oklahoma (-18.5), 8 p.m. ET, FOX

The Sooners saved slim hopes of a College Football Playoff berth with a come-from-behind win over Baylor and return home to face a tough Horned Frogs team that has only won once away from home this season. However, that’s three games in a row now for the Sooners where they have looked quite vulnerable.

TCU quarterback Max Duggan had a solid game last week, as he avoided an interception for the first time in four games, and the Horned Frogs will need a repeat performance if they want to keep this one close.

Last week took a lot out of the Sooners, and TCU has a tendency to make opposing offenses play below their standards. The total has also gone under in 15 of TCU’s last 21 road games, which means this one may not turn into your standard Big 12 shootout. Given that Oklahoma’s defense continues to allow quite a few points (120 points combined in their last three games), and with the status of CeeDee Lamb still up in the air, I don’t see the Sooners covering such a large number.

Pick: TCU +18.5

---

The Big 12 isn't the only conference with important games this weekend. Check them all out at BetAmerica!