Big 12 Week 3 picks: Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State, Houston vs. Baylor

It's officially Week 3 of the college football season and the second week for Big 12 teams. It was a rough outing last week as Big 12 teams went 4-3 straight up and just 3-4 against the spread.

This week we will look at two Big 12 teams that will be kicking off their season. Join us as break down both games and deliver the best picks for each.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Noon ET, ESPN

Tulsa and Oklahoma State faced each other last season as OSU took a 40-21 victory over Tulsa on the road. This was the Cowboys fourth straight victory over the Golden Hurricane dating back to 2010 with an average margin of victory of just over 29 points. The average total in these four games was just under 80 points.

Oklahoma State returns the ninth highest percentage of production in the country from the previous season at 80%. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 75th in the nation at only 61%. However, the Golden Hurricane are returning 88% of their offensive production, while the defense will be brand new. That defense will have to face star wide receiver Tylan Wallace and quarterback Spencer Sanders, as well as a 2,000-yard rusher from last season in Chuba Hubbard.

Tulsa will counter with returning quarterback Zach Smith as well as their 1,000-yard receiver from last year, Keylon Stokes. I expect this to be a high scoring affair and one that could go either way with the spread. Lean towards taking the Over as points should come fast and furious with these two offenses and a very inexperienced Tulsa defense.

NCAAF Pick: Over 66

Houston Cougars at Baylor Bears, Noon ET, FOX

Two historically offensive juggernauts will be battling it out in Waco, Texas this Saturday. This is, surprisingly, the first meeting between these two programs since 1995, when both schools were members of the Southwest Conference.

Houston returns the third highest percentage of production in the nation from last season at 83%. Unfortunately, that production only managed to go 4-8 under Dana Holgorsen’s first season. The defense was atrocious, giving up 34 points per game, while the offense only managed 30.7 points per contest. The lone bright spot is receiver Marquez Stevenson, who is returning for his senior year after putting up 1,926 yards and 18 touchdowns in his previous two seasons.

Meanwhile, Baylor is only returning 51% of their production from a stellar 2019 campaign where they finished 11-3 and went to the Sugar Bowl. This ranks them 108th out of 130 schools in the nation.

Besides production, the Bears also are replacing the coaching staff after Matt Rhule went onto the NFL. Dave Aranda is taking his first head coaching job after serving as LSU's defensive coordinator for the past four seasons. He will need to get this young defense ready quickly as they only return one of their top eight tacklers from last season.

Things have not been kind to the Big 12 early on this season. I expect this trend to continue with this game as inexperience looms over Baylor. The Bears are likely getting a little bit of bias in this spread given how talented they were last year compared to the Cougars. However, Houston will be bringing in much more consistency with all its returning players and coaches. Give me the points all day in this one.

NCAAF pick: Houston +4.5