College football: Week 1 picks + viewing guide
BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. (Photo by Alan Smith/Icon Sportswire)
August 31st, 2020
Cancelled spring practices, virtual team meetings, and modified schedules could not stop the 2020 college football season from starting this fall.
While some conferences, like the Big Ten and Pac-12, opted to sit out the fall season, the ACC and Big 12 will play mostly conference competition, with only one out-of-conference opponent scheduled this season. The SEC is playing a season of only conference games.
Updated safety measures and potential schedule changes could occur as the NCAA navigates the COVID-19 pandemic, but one thing is for sure — college football is set to begin Thursday!
Let's take a look at the Week 1 schedule, with previews of the most enticing matchups and top NCAAF betting trends.
| Date, time | Matchup | TV station |
|---|
Thu, Sept. 3, 8 p.m. | Central Arkansas at UAB | ESPN3 |
Thu, Sept. 3, 9 p.m. | South Alabama at Southern Mississippi | CBSSN |
Sat, Sept. 5, 1 p.m. | Eastern Kentucky at Marshall | ESPN |
Sat, Sept. 5, 1:30 p.m. | Middle Tennessee at Army | CBSSN |
Sat, Sept. 5, 4:30 p.m. | SMU at Texas State | ESPN |
Sat, Sept. 5, 7:30 p.m. | Houston Baptist at North Texas | ESPN3 |
Sat, Sept. 5, 8 p.m. | Arkansas State at Memphis | ESPN |
Sat, Sept. 5, 9 p.m. | Stephen F. Austin at UTEP | ESPN3 |
Mon, Sept. 7, 8 p.m. | BYU at Navy | ESPN |
South Alabama at Southern Mississippi
South Alabama of the Sun Belt Conference will attempt to kick off its season with a win in Mississippi. If the Jaguars can do that, they’ll need just two more victories to best last season’s record.
The Jaguars need to find an answer for their sputtering offense, which averaged 311.4 yards per game last season. Desmond Trotter (820 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions through seven games) is the projected starting quarterback and will get much of last year’s offense back, minus leading rusher Tra Minter (1,057 yards, five TDs).
Southern Miss (7-6 in 2019) will be a tough first test.
The Golden Eagles hired offensive coordinator Matt Kubik — the former OC at Louisiana-Monroe — whose Warhawks owned one of five offenses in the FBS that averaged 250 passing yards and 200 rushing yards last season.
Quarterback Jack Abraham and four starting offensive linemen return, as well as last year’s top pass catcher Tim Jones (73 receptions, 902 yards) and lead back Kevin Perkins (547 yards, three TDs).
Jack Abraham has the Southern Miss offense on a roll after a strong week 5 performance. pic.twitter.com/TEEu4HOxaI
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 5, 2019
The first half of this game should start slow, but by the end of regulation, Southern Miss will walk away with a healthy win.
Pick: Southern Mississippi -14.5
Middle Tennessee State at Army
Army ranked third in rushing yards per game (297.2) in 2019 but finished with a 5-8 record.
The Black Knights need to replace the production of lead back Connor Slomka (658 yards) and quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr., who tallied 710 yards on the ground.
Junior Jabari Laws (311 yards passing, 484 yards rushing) will likely take over for Hopkins, but Christian Anderson is another option under center (429 rushing yards, five touchdowns).
Middle Tennessee’s run production last season mainly came from quarterback Asher O’Hara. Chaton Mobley (208 yards, three TDs) is the team's top returning running back.
Check this play out. The flying leg kick from @MT_FB QB Asher O’Hara! pic.twitter.com/g4sSUmiAfQ
— Chris Hassel (@Hassel_Chris) October 19, 2019
Army should eat up time of possession, something Middle Tennessee struggled with last season. The Blue Raiders averaged 26:59 TOP, while their opposition averaged 33:01. Army ranked 16th in the country in TOP (32:26).
Middle Tennessee also surrendered 194 rushing yards per game last season. Expect Army to find open lanes and crank up the scoring Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Army -5.5
BYU at Navy
Malcolm Perry set an FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback (2,017) last season and led Navy to an 11-2 record and a top 25 ranking in the AP poll. But Perry is now a member of the Miami Dolphins.
Perry Olsen will get the start Monday and attempt to guide a team that led college football in rushing yardage (360.5) in 2019.
Running backs Jamale Carothers (734 yards, 14 TDs), Nelson Smith (571 yards, seven TDs), and CJ Williams (298 yards, three TDs) have all returned.
They’ll confront a BYU defense that gave up 181.3 yards per game on the ground last season. However, with the experienced group the Cougars bring back, their run stop unit should be much stronger.
Jamale Carothers : 22 carries for 75 yards & a TD (1-yard TD catch off a pass from WR Chance Warren. This was Navy's only pass of the game) #NavySpecial pic.twitter.com/kECWQNNyst
— Lee Harvey (@AyeThatsLee) December 15, 2019
The Midshipmen are just one-point favorites on Labor Day. The Under is 5-2 in Navy’s last seven home games, while the Over is 4-1 in the Cougars’ last four games as an underdog.
Solid defense and an emphasis on the run should keep scoring low. Take the Under for this prime-time matchup.
Pick: Under 53.5
NCAAF betting trends
Over/Under and ATS trends based on performances in 2019.
- The Under is 6-1 in Southern Mississippi’s last seven games as a home favorite.
- The Under is 5-1 in South Alabama's last six games as a road underdog.
- The Over is 4-0 in Army's last four home games.
- The Over is 3-1-1 when Middle Tennessee is the away underdog.
- Navy was 10-3 ATS in 2019.
- BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
Find all the latest Week 1 college football odds at BetAmerica!
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