College football Week 7 odds, picks and viewing guide

Week 7 of the college football season brings us our game of the year, thus far — a matchup between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia.

The Crimson Tide head in as 6.5-point favorites. Given Alabama’s defensive woes and offensive excellence, this line feels very accurate.

Rather than dive into this game that every fan and bettor will be watching and wagering on, let’s look at three other fascinating matchups set for Saturday.

LSU vs. #10 Florida

This game is in jeopardy now that the Gators have multiple positive cases of Covid-19, but plenty of teams have already played with positive cases on the roster.

Both LSU and Florida enter this game off disappointing losses. LSU lost on the road as 14-point favorites to Missouri and dropped to 1-2 on the season. Florida saw its hopes of an undefeated season fall at the hands of Texas A&M and longtime nemesis, Jimbo Fisher.

Florida enters at 2-1 overall, and both teams are 1-2 ATS.

A year removed from their national championship, the holes on this LSU roster are glaringly evident. While there is still talent, defensive discipline is nonexistent.

Aside from talented sophomore Derek Stingley, the secondary is getting exposed and taken advantage of. Defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is known for leaving his cornerbacks on islands, but something may need to change in short order for LSU to survive the season.

Florida, meanwhile, has been prolific on the offensive side of the ball, but it similarly faces significant issues when trying to defend.

While LSU ranks 71st in the nation in yards surrendered per game (494), Florida gives up 495 yards per game, good for 72nd.

LSU’s lack of defense makes the Tigers a vulnerable favorite incapable of covering large spreads, but they’ve been a capable offense and now get to face an almost equally terrible defense. Catching double digits points instead of laying them will give them a chance at covering.

Pick: LSU +11

#11 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State

This sure feels like a sucker line if there ever was one, but we’re all susceptible to a play on a sucker line every now and then. This one is calling my name.

Mississippi State is 1-2 on the season, winning outright and covering in their first game against LSU, as KJ Costello tossed an SEC-record 623 passing yards. Then things quickly went off the rails, and the Bulldogs lost to perennial SEC doormat Arkansas, before completely falling apart last weekend in a 24-2 drumming at the hands of Kentucky.

Costello got pulled against Kentucky after averaging just 4.2 yards per attempt and throwing four interceptions, but his replacement, Will Rogers, was no better in relief.

Rogers averaged 2.9 yards per attempt in obvious passing downs and tossed two interceptions, as well. Head coach Mike Leach is just three games into his latest coaching voyage and might already be looking to stave off a mutiny.

Texas A&M comes off an emotional and hard-fought win against Florida, and while a letdown is to be expected, quarterback Kellen Mond looked great. As a senior, he should display some level of consistency.

There is nothing about Mississippi State to like right now, and I’ll fade them until they right the ship.

Pick: Texas A&M -6.5

#8 Cincinnati vs. Tulsa 

If Texas A&M looks like a sucker line, eighth-ranked and undefeated Cincinnati laying just three points to the 1-1 Tulsa Golden Hurricane looks even worse.

Tulsa hasn’t defeated a Top 10 team since 1971. In 2019, Cincinnati finished 11-1, while Tulsa was just 4-8. Cincinnati defeated Tulsa last year by double digits, 24-13.

And yet, I’m picking Tulsa.

This line opened with Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites, and despite everything the Bearcats seemingly have going for them and the majority of bettors siding with the favorite, the line quickly dropped to 3. This is referred to as reverse line movement, and in college sports, in particular, it should be eye-catching.

Tulsa kicked off its season with a defensive struggle against Big 12 leading Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State was expected to have a powerful offense, and Tulsa shut the Cowboys down, holding them to just 2.8 yards per rush.

In their second game, Tulsa went on the road and broke UCF’s 21-game home winning streak by holding the Golden Knights to 3.7 yards per rush and just 26 points.

Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder has struggled with turnovers. He threw four interceptions already on the season against weak opponents. He isn’t the most prolific passing quarterback and passed for just 597 yards through three games.

Cincinnati looks like the stronger team, to be sure, but this has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring game with a live dog.

Pick: Tulsa +3

NCAAF Week 7 betting trends

• Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a road favorite.
• Mississippi State is on an 0-5 ATS streak against teams with a winning record.
• Tulsa is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog.
• LSU is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog.
• Florida's total has gone Over in each of the last 5 games.