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Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game between the Miami Hurricanes and the Alabama Crimson Tide. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire)
October 20th, 2021
Stop us if you’ve heard this before—we have a new leader atop the Heisman Trophy futures odds! Let’s break down the favorites, the risers, and the fallers as we head into Week 8 of the college football season.
For the billionth time this season, or at least that's what it feels like, Bryce Young and Matt Corral have flipped spots as Heisman Trophy favorites. Young played very well in a dominant victory at Mississippi State, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns as the Tide rolled 49-9.
Meanwhile, Corral struggled with passing on the road at Tennessee, as the Vols held him to just 231 yards passing and two touchdowns in a narrow 31-26 Ole Miss win, while intercepting him once and sacking him five times. However, Corral did run a whopping 30 times for 195 yards on the day.
That first career TD feeling >>>@DannisjJackson | @corral_matt pic.twitter.com/Bz8JFAX8Zx— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) October 17, 2021
That first career TD feeling >>>@DannisjJackson | @corral_matt pic.twitter.com/Bz8JFAX8Zx
As for CJ Stroud, the Ohio State quarterback is the new third-favorite, moving up yet again from +800 to +600 following Ohio State’s bye week. Through five games, Stroud has 18 passing touchdowns, and were it not for a missed game with an injury he could very well be right there with Young and Corral with short odds. The fact that his price went down while sitting out is indicative of the number of people beginning to put wagers on him to catch the two men at the top.
Here are the P5 QB stats for the entire 2021 Season so far. CJ Stroud and Matt Corral are your leaders, but Kenny Pickett is a GREAT storyline #CFB #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/4Zz9WS7DND— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) October 18, 2021
Here are the P5 QB stats for the entire 2021 Season so far. CJ Stroud and Matt Corral are your leaders, but Kenny Pickett is a GREAT storyline #CFB #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/4Zz9WS7DND
As for the other contenders, there are only three other players at a price of +2000 or better. Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III slid a tiny bit, moving from +700 to +1200 after rushing for just 84 yards on 23 carries and failing to score in a 20-15 win over Indiana.
Cincinnati continues to remain unbeaten, but quarterback Desmond Ridder saw his odds dip from +1200 to +1600 as a blowout 56-21 win over UCF saw his opportunity to rack up stats limited. He threw for just 140 yards and a touchdown in the win, with the Bearcats rushing for 336 yards.
The biggest rise of the week came from Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett, who has the Panthers atop the ACC heading into a game with Clemson this weekend. He threw for 203 yards and a pair of scores in Pitt’s 28-7 win over Virginia Tech, adding another touchdown on the ground. Pickett now has thrown for 21 touchdowns against just one interception this year, and has run for three more and could be a sneaky dark horse candidate should he play well against the Tigers.
Numerous players slid far from the top after the Week 7 results. Iowa running back Tyler Goodson was the biggest loser, seeing his odds free fall from +2000 to +10000 following the Hawkeyes' upset loss to Purdue, where he rushed for just 68 yards and failed to score. He has not scored a touchdown in his last four games.
Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Georgia quarterback JT Daniels both dipped to +5000 from +1400 and +3000, respectively from last week. Daniels missed another game, all but ending his hopes at the trophy, while Robinson ran for 135 yards and two touchdowns in a 32-24 defeat to Oklahoma State.
Jayden Daniels took a huge tumble as well, as a 35-21 defeat to Utah saw the Arizona State quarterback’s odds move from +3300 to +10000. Daniels threw for 237 yards and two touchdowns, adding another on the ground, but he needed to keep winning to have a real shot.
Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson is still hanging around at +2500, down from +2000 entering his bye week. However, as Stroud’s stock rises, and the schedule gets tougher, Henderson will need to have big yardages games to hang around.
For all intents and purposes, the Heisman Trophy race is down to three real contenders—four, if you believe Cincinnati can run the table. Pickett will fade if Pitt loses, and neither Robinson nor Henderson are going to do enough to chase down the top two. Young and Corral continue to keep each other’s price at positive juice, but if either one were to begin to face, the other would become the prohibitive favorite.
At this point, it becomes a decision of which person you believe will begin to pull away. Stroud still offers value, although that value has significantly diminished over the past few weeks. Young’s next two games will be against Tennessee this weekend and LSU in two weeks, and Arkansas and Auburn present two possible ranked opponents to end the season.
"By the end of the season I think we're going to see @CJ7STROUD in New York." @BigAntHerron has @OhioStateFB at No. 1️⃣ in this week's #B1GToday Impact 5️⃣. 😤Full Interview 📺➡️: https://t.co/XheSceP1y3 pic.twitter.com/IH1krEszPH— Ohio State on BTN (@OhioStateOnBTN) October 20, 2021
"By the end of the season I think we're going to see @CJ7STROUD in New York." @BigAntHerron has @OhioStateFB at No. 1️⃣ in this week's #B1GToday Impact 5️⃣. 😤Full Interview 📺➡️: https://t.co/XheSceP1y3 pic.twitter.com/IH1krEszPH
Meanwhile, Corral will look to regain some confidence in his Heisman candidacy against those Auburn Tigers this weekend, and the Rebels have a big matchup with Texas A&M in a few weeks that could make or break his campaign. However, Stroud has the best opportunity to build his resume down the stretch, with three of Ohio State’s final six opponents currently ranked in the top ten. Should the Buckeyes win out with him playing well in those games, the award may still be there for Stroud’s taking.
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