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college football

Joe Burrow has stranglehold on Heisman race

LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow throws a screen pass against Mississippi State. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire)

Dan Halverson

November 14th, 2019

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Joe Burrow has been exceptional all season long, and in Tuscaloosa on Saturday he further proved his merit as the greatest player of the 2019 season. Against LSU's nemesis, the perennial power of the SEC and a number of future pros on defensive, Burrow yet again stepped up on the biggest stage.

After sitting at +150 to win the Heisman Trophy before the game, Burrow has plummeted to -1000 and is the overwhelming favorite.

Odds to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy

PlayerOdds
Joe Burrow
-1000
Justin Fields
+900
Jalen Hurts
+1200
Tua Tagovailoa
+1500
J.K. Dobbins
+8000
Justin Herbert
+8000
Chuba Hubbard
+8000
Trevor Lawrence
+8000
Jonathan Taylor
+8000
Travis Etienne
+10000

Showing 1 to 10 of 11 entries

Burrow had an incredible game against Alabama, but his massive drop in odds also illustrates how important winning is to getting the trophy. Burrow threw for 393 yards and three touchdowns in victory, while his counterpart, Tua Tagovailoa, threw for 418 yards and four scores. Burrow was clearly the more impactful player, but one has to wonder how these odds would look if Tagovailoa hadn't fumbled in the red zone early in the game and Alabama won by a few points.

Tua fumbles in the redzone, LSU takes over. The fumble was not forced. pic.twitter.com/EnTniNPCya

— banned marty, (@neverdebate) November 9, 2019
But LSU emerged victories, and Burrow has ascended to a seemingly insurmountable lead in the Heisman race. For the couple weeks leading up to the Alabama-LSU matchup, I referenced how quickly one big showcase game can turn a Heisman frontrunner from a value plus odds proposition to a massive favorite, and that is exactly what occurred with Burrow. While -1000 favorites can and do lose with somewhat shocking regularity, it seems unlikely this will be the case here.

And yet we must remember where things sat a year ago. Following Week 11 Tagovailoa was a -750 favorite. Eventual winner Kyler Murray was the co-second choice at +750. Because of Tagovailoa's injury and reduced effectiveness, those odds flipped within the month of November, and Murray eventually found himself striking the Heisman pose. If that were to occur again this year, there are only two legitimate options to replace Burrow.

Fields and Hurt still worth a longshot look

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is the second favorite at +900, and while much of this is a result of his performances leading the most powerful offense in the country, it is also related to the Buckeyes' undefeated record. Ohio State maintains a good chance at going undefeated, and that is why he is in the second position.

😏 @justnfields returned from the bye and didn't even skip a beat.

Watch all 37 of the @OhioStateFB QB's touchdowns from this season ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/6Lzb8qmGwr

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 11, 2019


The third option is longtime lurker, Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, who sits at +1200. Hurts struggled in the second half last week against Iowa State, and even though his team scored 42 points in victory, he still endured a massive drop in odds in response to Burrow's rise. Hurts has been steady all year, with 3,611 total yards and 39 total touchdowns. Burrow, by comparison, has 3,387 total yards and 36 touchdowns. The stat lines aren't significantly different, but Burrow has shined brightest on the biggest stages, and that has made all the difference.




Another crucial Saturday of college football awaits this week. Check out all the matchups at BetAmerica!

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