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Michigan State Spartans running back Kenneth Walker III (9). (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
October 13th, 2021
Another week of college football sees another change atop the Heisman futures odds board, as new faces make their case for the season-ending award. Let’s break down how things look heading into Week 7 of the college football season!
Following Alabama’s last-second defeat to Texas A&M on Saturday, Bryce Young has fallen from the top spot on the Heisman rankings and once again Ole Miss gunslinger Matt Corral takes his place. Corral saw his odds swing from +200 to +125 following his solid performance in a 52-51 shootout win over No. 13 Arkansas, in which he threw for 287 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and added 94 yards on the ground for another two scores.
MATT CORRAL OMG. pic.twitter.com/2A8NoICDwa— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 9, 2021
MATT CORRAL OMG. pic.twitter.com/2A8NoICDwa
Meanwhile, Young slid down following Bama's three-point defeat to the unranked Aggies. His performance is not why the team lost, as he racked up 369 passing yards and three touchdowns, with just one interception. However, the loss combined with Corral’s performance was enough to see them swap spots.
Desmond Ridder played well in Cincinnati’s dominant win over Temple, throwing for 259 yards and three touchdowns. However, despite seeing his odds jump from +1400 to +1200, he slides down from third to fifth this week. That is due to the massive change in odds for Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III.
If you’ve been reading this piece the past few weeks, we told you to jump on Stroud while you could. Over the past three weeks, his odds have gone from +4000 to now +800 following his second straight five-touchdown passing performance. The freshman quarterback threw for 406 yards in a rout of Maryland, and has not thrown an interception in the last two weeks.
Where CJ Stroud ranks among FBS QBs right now in some key stats:Adjusted Yards/Attempt: Tied 1stPass Yards/Game: 2ndPass TDs/Game: 2nd…in his first year starting.— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) October 11, 2021
Where CJ Stroud ranks among FBS QBs right now in some key stats:Adjusted Yards/Attempt: Tied 1stPass Yards/Game: 2ndPass TDs/Game: 2nd…in his first year starting.
As for Walker, he flew from +2500 last week up to the third-favorite, with his price now sitting at +700 following a 233 yard performance against Rutgers. Michigan State is now 6-0 on the season, and Walker is averaging 7.1 yards per carry with nine touchdowns on the year.
The two other big risers this week were Ohio State running back TreVeyon Harris, Texas running back Bijan Robinson, and Iowa running back Tyler Goodson, whose price shot up from +5000 to +2000. Harris had a terrific day as well against Rutgers, and jumped from +3300 to +2000. Robinson, who like Walker went from +2500 and settled at +1400 this week, ran for 137 yards and a touchdown against Oklahoma and has rushed for 789 yards and eight scores through six games. Meanwhile, Goodson’s numbers are decent, but his price seems more tied to Iowa’s overall success than his actual performance.
If you have a ticket from the preseason, when Spencer Rattler was the Heisman Trophy favorite, you might want to frame it as a collector’s item. I say that because Rattler went from +2000 last week to +8000 this week, and reports on Wednesday suggest he will no longer be the starting quarterback. Additionally, you might want to consider using it to light the fireplace as the evenings start to get colder.
NIL experts estimate Spencer Rattler, preseason Heisman favorite, has made around $200K in deals. What now, if he's lost the starting job?Better Q, they ask @RossDellenger: What happens to Caleb Williams?https://t.co/VtgwgPrD2s— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) October 10, 2021
NIL experts estimate Spencer Rattler, preseason Heisman favorite, has made around $200K in deals. What now, if he's lost the starting job?Better Q, they ask @RossDellenger: What happens to Caleb Williams?https://t.co/VtgwgPrD2s
Oregon had a bye week, and it led to a massive change in odds for their duo of Heisman hopefuls. Quarterback Anthony Brown saw his price shift from +6600 to +10000, while running back CJ Verdell went from +6600 to not even on the board. Georgia quarterback JT Daniels continues his "not playing" slide, as he is now +3300 after being +2000 last week. There is talk he could start against No. 11 Kentucky this weekend, a game that could see his odds increase significantly.
The biggest drop of the weekend came from Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. The Cardinals blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead on Saturday, and Cunningham scored just one touchdown on the day. His price went from +6600 last week to a whopping +20000 this week.
One other big drop this week was that of Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford. He was knocked out of the game against Iowa over the weekend, but not before he threw for 146 yards and a pair of interceptions, including one on his first snap. As a result, he shifted from +2500 to +5000 this week.
The Buckeyes have a bye week, so if you are wanting to get value on Stroud or Henderson, it might be prudent to wait until next week before their very winnable game against Indiana. As for Young, he has a game with Mississippi State this weekend, and I expect a strong bounce-back performance, so +225 isn’t bad for a player who was even money a week ago.
Looking at the weekend for Corral and Ole Miss, they will travel to take on a Tennessee team that is making a bit of noise and dominated South Carolina and Missouri the past two weeks. However, Florida put 38 on them, and Corral shouldn’t have a tough time against that defense, so his price might drop even lower.
Six weeks into the season, who's your early pick to win CFB's top individual award?Let us know in the Heisman House poll!(📍@NissanUSA)— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 13, 2021
Six weeks into the season, who's your early pick to win CFB's top individual award?Let us know in the Heisman House poll!(📍@NissanUSA)
If you want in on Walker, now is the time to make your move. He will face an Indiana team this weekend that is allowing 129 yards rushing per game, and surrendered four runs of at least 10 yards against Penn State in their last game two weeks ago as the Nittany Lions rushed for 209 yards.
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