NCAAF Week 13: Iowa State vs. Texas odds, preview, and pick
Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger. (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire)
November 25th, 2020
An important Big 12 battle is set for Friday (Noon ET, ABC) as the No. 15 Iowa State Cyclones (6-2) head to Austin, TX to face the No. 20 Texas Longhorns (5-2). Will the Longhorns defend their turf against this conference rival, or will the surging Cyclones prove too much for Texas to handle? Here’s our wagering preview.
Texas is fresh, but lacks Iowa State’s momentum
The Longhorns have not played since Nov. 7, as they enjoyed a scheduled bye week before seeing their road trip to Kansas postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. Texas survived a scare against West Virginia when last seen, winning 17-13.
Everything is going @CycloneFB's way today 🙌 pic.twitter.com/2MzgrVuyMA
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 21, 2020
The Cyclones exit their most convincing victory of the season, a 45-0 drubbing of Kansas State. Junior quarterback Brock Purdy completed 16-of-20 passes for 236 yards and three touchdowns.
Will weather wipe out the passing game?
The National Weather Service, as of Wednesday, is calling for an 70% chance of precipitation on Friday in Austin, with "showers and thunderstorms likely after noon."
This forecast is welcome for two defenses that have been weak against the pass in 2020. Iowa State ranks 60th by yards allowed per game through the air, while Texas ranks 113th.
However, these are two of the better run-stuffing teams in the Big 12. The Cyclones’ stoppers are 18th in the country by rushing yards allowed per game, while the Longhorns are 28th.
Iowa State and Texas statistics and rankings
| Team | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards Allowed | Rushing Yards Allowed |
|---|
Iowa State Cyclones | 232.4 (66th) | 205.2 (30th) | 229.8 (59th) | 105.8 (20th) |
Texas Longhorns | 269.9 (35th) | 167.3 (61st) | 282.3 (116th) | 118.6 (28th) |
Breece Hall is the X-factor
Iowa State tailback Breece Hall has tallied the most rushing yards in the country this season (1,169) and is one touchdown shy of Alabama’s Najee Harris (16) for the national lead. But Texas’ defense is among the toughest he’ll face in 2020, and they know to look for him in the event of heavy rain. Friday’s result hinges on Hall’s performance.
Breece Hall is on an absolute rampage in the 1st half
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 21, 2020
💥123 yards
💥 2 TDs
pic.twitter.com/XfUOzJT1tu
Trends suggest the Under will cash
Spread trends are conflicting for the Cyclones, who are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last 29 games as an underdog but 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a scoring outburst of 40 or more points in their previous game. The Longhorns are just 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight games as a home favorite.
However, there are several strong Under trends bettors should be aware of. The Under is 9-1-1 in Iowa State’s last 11 games following a scoring outburst of 40 or more points in their previous game. They’ve gone below the total in nine of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
The Under is 22-4 in Texas’ last 26 home games against teams with winning road records.
Predicted score: Iowa State 27, Texas 24
NCAAF pick: Under
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