NCAAF Week 14: Texas A&M vs. Auburn odds, preview and pick

A fantastic matchup in the SEC West takes place this weekend as the Texas A&M Aggies face-off against the Auburn Tigers. With the Aggies entering the week ranked fifth in the College Football Playoff, a win is absolutely critical to their continued dreams of making the playoff in Jimbo Fisher’s third season at the helm.

The Aggies are a clear-cut favorite

The Tigers enter this matchup fresh off a drumming at the hands of rival Alabama, but are still 5-3 SU on the season and 4-4 ATS. The Aggies, meanwhile, are 6-1 SU (3-4 ATS), with their biggest win of the season coming against the Florida Gators. After opening as short four-point favorites, early money has pushed the traveling Aggies up to a seven-point favorite.

Auburn has been rocked by injury

Auburn enters this game with several names on their injury report that may slow down Gus Malzahn’s offense. Offensive lineman Alec Jackson is officially out for the year with a hand injury. In addition, lineman Brodarious Hamm is also listed as questionable due to a left knee injury that saw him exit against the Tide. Running backs Tank Bigsby and DJ Williams are also banged up. For a team that lacks a proficient passing attack, injuries at offensive line and running back could prove detrimental to their effectiveness.

Aggies will play with a sense of urgency

With Texas A&M sitting in fifth place in the CFP standings, the door is potentially open for an eight-win Aggies team whose only loss came against #1 Alabama to jump the Ohio State Buckeyes and sneak into the top four.

While this increased pressure may cause the Aggies to play too tight, it should also have them focused heading into this matchup. Jimbo FIsher has lots of experience preparing his team for high-pressure matchups, and the Aggies will continue to benefit from the senior leadership of their long-time starter, Kellen Mond.

Aggies have an advantage at QB

Auburn quarterback Bo Nix has never impressed me as a passer, and in 2020 he has just 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Compare that to his peer, Mond, who has 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, and it's clear the Aggies have an advantage at quarterback.

The Aggies offense as a whole is averaging 0.7 yards per play more than the Tigers, and on defense is 10th in the country giving up just 3.0 yards per rush attempt. Texas A&M is an impressive 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as road favorites, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight renditions of this matchup.

Texas A&M has all the pressure and laying points on divisional road favorites probably won’t make you rich over time, but this Aggies team has taken a step up this year and is playing better than their record against the spread would indicate.

Score prediction: Aggies 26, Auburn 17

NCAAF pick: Texas A&M -7

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