Oregon is the CFP live longshot you should wager on

When you look at previews for the upcoming college football season and see predictions for who will win the College Football Playoff, the same five teams dominate the discussion.

However, there is some solid value outside the usual suspects, and we're here to explain why Oregon is a team you should be laying money on as a longshot to win the national championship.

Oregon's defense should be among the nation’s best

If you watched last year’s Pac-12 Championship game, you are already familiar with the freak that is Kayvon Thibodeaux. If you somehow were under a rock, then new defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will gladly explain to you how much Thibodeaux reminds him of Von Miller. You might think that is overhype, until you realized that DeRuyter coached Miller at Texas A&M, so he knows what he’s talking about.

The scary part of seeing Thibodeaux lined up against you this season is that he will now be in a 3-4 edge role rather than lining up as a 4-3 linebacker. This will give him more opportunities to cause chaos in DeRuyter’s new system. Oregon may have the best front seven in the country, making it difficult to key on the likely top-five pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Linebacker Noah Sewell, younger brother of 2021 seventh-overall pick Penei, is also expected to hear his name called on opening night of next year’s draft, and will cause problems himself.

Returning seven starters from last year, the Ducks will need to improve on their scoring defense and make fewer mistakes in big games. However, with the danger Thibodeaux brings, it has been proven in years past that a dominant edge rusher at the college level can cover up a lot of issues elsewhere.

Anthony Brown can grow into the quarterback role

While head coach Mario Cristobal has multiple options at quarterback, it appears he is handing the reigns to fifth-year senior Anthony Brown. Following the transfer of Tyler Shough to Texas Tech, Brown is going to lead an offense in which he threw just 23 passes last season.

However, new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead brings his system from Penn State, in which Trace McSorley put up outstanding numbers and helped put the Nittany Lions slide into the playoff picture. Brown has more than 700 snaps in his career, and should be able to pick up the offense. When he does, he will have a variety of weapons at his disposal.

The entire offensive line returns from last season, and Cristobal is known for developing offensive linemen in his college coaching career. Additionally, he has a trio of running backs ready to run teams into the ground, as CJ Verdell will share carries with Travis Dye and Sean Dollars. Furthermore, they return 14 of their top 16 offensive players from last season, and have added 6’2” true freshman wide receiver Troy Franklin, who has had the coaching staff raving about his performance in camp.

Brown won’t need to win games this season as much as he will need to avoid losing them. If he can trust his defense and the players around him, and simply make the plays he needs to, that should be enough for Oregon to win the majority of its games.

Cristobal has loads of talent and a winnable schedule

This is by far Cristobal’s most talented squad in his four years at Oregon, and two years ago the Ducks were contenders for the playoff. An early-season defeat to Auburn hurt them badly, but it was the late-season defeat to a conference foe that ultimately sunk their season.

This year, they will again face off with a tough non-conference team in Ohio State on Sept. 11. Win that game, and the Ducks control their destiny. However, a loss would not be the end of the world, as long as they don't get blown out.

Oregon’s schedule is not easy, as they will play four tough road games in-conference. However, they avoid both USC and Arizona State, the two best teams from the Southern division. The key date will be on Nov. 6, when they face fierce rival Washington on the road. Win that game, and the Ducks are almost certainly in the Pac-12 title game with what should be a rematch with USC.

Oregon’s price is too good to pass up

At +8000 odds, it would behoove you to throw some money on Oregon to win the College Football Playoff. They have the weapons on both sides of the ball to win on any given Saturday, and Thibodeaux possesses the skill set to implode any offense’s game-plan the Ducks come up against. If Brown can be the quarterback Oregon needs him to be, they have more than enough talent to navigate the season and make some noise in January.