Scully’s NCAAF Week 12 picks: Showdown in Waco

A pair of Big 12 teams with playoff aspirations, Baylor and Oklahoma, will square off in Waco, while Minnesota will hope to keep its perfect season alive in Week 12 (all games listed Saturday).

Oklahoma (-10) at Baylor, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Unbeaten Baylor should be primed for its biggest game in years. The Bears rank 31st nationally, with a 32.8-point scoring average, and Charlie Brewer is more than capable of exploiting a bad Oklahoma secondary. He has completed 67% of his passes this year, with only four interceptions, and showed his grit against TCU last week. Baylor also has quality wide receivers in Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton and an underrated running back duo in JaMycal Hasty and John Lovett.

Oddsmakers eventually will adjust to Oklahoma’s defensive inefficiencies, but not this week. The Sooners are extremely vulnerable laying this many points to a quality rival. They enter on a 1-4 ATS run in the last five games, and the defense has gone off kilter, with 89 points allowed over their last two outings. Those games came against Iowa State and Kansas State, and Baylor is better on both sides of the ball. The Bears defense ranks 18th nationally in scoring (19.2 points per game), and I give the Bears a legitimate chance at the upset.

Pick: Baylor +10

Minnesota at Iowa (-3), 4 p.m. ET, FOX

Unbeaten Minnesota must avoid a letdown after an upset of Penn State, and Iowa can be a difficult place to play, but don’t overthink this game. The Hawkeyes offense is terrible, and I have bought into Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan.

An unheralded recruit out of Kentucky, Morgan is 18-2 as a starter at Minnesota. He completed 18 of his 20 passes for 339 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions, against a top-ranked Penn State defense last week. He is just the second FBS quarterback in the last 20 years to have multiple single-season games with a 90% completion rate (minimum 20 attempts).

Rodney Smith leads a fine stable of running backs, Minnesota ranks 12th nationally in total defense and the Golden Gophers have covered their last six games.

The points are appealing here. Iowa is winless in three games against ranked opponents, and Minnesota has won five games decided by a touchdown or less.

Pick: Minnesota +3

Navy at Notre Dame (-7.5), 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Navy is firing on all cylinders and has scored 42.2 points per game since its lone loss at Memphis in late September. I will play this high-powered offense against an inconsistent Notre Dame squad.

The Midshipmen lead the nation with 348.3 rushing yards per game, and quarterback Malcolm Perry has been able to keep teams off balance with his arm (he threw for 165 yards and a touchdown in their last game against Connecticut).

Navy’s run defense has improved this season and ranks a 21st at 116 yards per game. While Navy is vulnerable against the pass, Notre Dame’s Ian Book isn’t much of a threat to hurt teams with his arm (four interceptions the last two weeks).

The Irish offense lacks imagination, seeking to grind out wins with the ground game (288 rushing yards last week), and the defense been exploited in recent weeks by USC, Michigan and Virginia Tech. Navy can continue that trend and owns a 5-1 ATS record in the last six meetings.

Pick: Navy +7.5

Louisville (-4) at NC State, 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC

Louisville has wins over Wake Forest, Virginia and Boston College because of its offense, which has averaged 42.2 points per game in five victories. The Cardinals are vulnerable against quality offenses, but they catch a break this week and should take care of business versus punchless NC State.

The Wolfpack feature one of the worst quarterback situations in the FBS. NC State ranks 109th in scoring (21 points per game), but those numbers are inflated by weak non-conference opponents. NC State has averaged only 14.6 points in five ACC games. The defense can’t defend the pass (105th) and has allowed 51.3 points per game over its last three contests.

Pick: Louisville -4

Texas at Iowa State (-6.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, FS1

This line is unfathomable and an overreaction to Iowa State's 41-point total against a bad Oklahoma defense. The four-loss Cyclones should not be laying a touchdown to Texas’ 13th-ranked passing offense.

Only two games ago Iowa State faltered badly and lost as an 11-point home favorite to Oklahoma State, which cost them a spot in the top 25. Brock Purdy lacks good receivers, and as a result the sophomore quarterback’s numbers have declined this season (16 touchdowns and seven interceptions).

Texas has been opportunistic, with 10 turnovers forced in six Big 12 games, and Iowa State is averaging nearly two turnovers per game at home. It will be no surprise if the Longhorns win outright. Tom Herman is 13-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, and Texas has more than enough offense to play Iowa State close.

Pick: Texas +6.5

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James Scully’s 2019 NCAAF record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 12: 23-23 (2-2 last week)