Scully’s NCAAF Week 13 picks: Iowa State will take down Texas

Thanksgiving week means Friday college football games, and I will include a pair of important contests with implications for the ACC and Big 12 conference races in my selections.

We've had eight consecutive winning weeks, and I plan to make it nine straight with the following selections in Week 13.

#2 Notre Dame vs. #19 North Carolina

North Carolina has had this game circled all year, and the points are appealing with the high-scoring Tar Heels.

The UNC offense enters in top form, with 115 points in its last two outings. After it looked ahead in Week 11, the defense should benefit from a week off to prepare. North Carolina rallied to overcome a sizable deficit against Wake Forest, and it will perform better against Notre Dame.

Quarterback Sam Howell enhanced his pro prospects in Week 11, when he threw for 550 yards and six touchdowns, and North Carolina features fantastic depth at running back (Javonte Williams and Michael Carter) and wide receiver (Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown).

The Tar Heels will light up the scoreboard against a Notre Dame defense that has allowed a combined 71 points and 830 yards in its last two games.

Notre Dame came out firing in its last two games, with 47 points against Clemson and 45 against Boston College, but the Irish lost two starting offensive linemen (Tommy Kraemer and Jarrett Patterson) in recent days. Don’t be surprised to see them take a step back, after a pair of uncharacteristic offensive explosions.

Brian Kelly loves to employ a conservative attack when possible, and he would prefer to keep the ball away from North Carolina with long, time-consuming drives.

North Carolina will give the Irish all they can handle in a close game.

Pick: North Carolina +4.5

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#13 Iowa State vs. #17 Texas

Iowa State enters in top form, after a 45-0 dismantling of Kansas State in Week 12.

Quarterback Brock Purdy, a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the season, was terrific against the Wildcats. He completed 16 of his 20 passes for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore running back Breece Hall continues to emerge as a force and rushed for 136 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 15 carries.

Texas has not played since Nov. 7, and this will be best defense the Longhorns have faced. They’ve won three straight, but quarterback Sam Ehlinger has completed only 58.8% of his passes this season and 52.9% against top 25 competition. Iowa State will keep him off balance with its pass rush.

The Longhorns are soft defensively, with nearly 30 points allowed per game, and they’re catching the Cyclones at the wrong time.

Iowa State should be laying more points in this spot!

Pick: Iowa St. -1.5

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#8 Northwestern vs. Michigan State

Here is another opportunity to make money on Northwestern, which should be laying at least three touchdowns in this spot.

To say the Wildcats have surprised bettors would be an understatement. They were grabbing seven points at home against Wisconsin in Week 12, but the wrong team was favored. Northwestern beat the Badgers like a drum, and the Wildcats are superior in the Big Ten West.

Teams don’t score on Northwestern in the second half (the Wildcats have allowed only seven points after halftime all season), and Michigan State struggles to get anything going offensively against good defensive teams.

Northwestern has the stingiest defense Michigan State will face this season, and the punchless Spartans could be headed toward another shutout loss.

I like the Wildcats by at least 20 points.

Pick: Northwestern -13.5

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James Scully's NCAAF ATS record heading into Week 13: 18-12