Scully's New Mexico Bowl and Boca Raton Bowl previews

Saturday, December 21 is a huge day for college football, with six bowls scheduled for stadiums across the United States. BetAmerica's James Scully has surveyed the landscape and has previews and picks for the New Mexico Bowl, which features Central Michigan and San Diego State, and the Boca Raton Bowl, which will pit Florida Atlantic against SMU.

New Mexico Bowl: Central Michigan vs. San Diego State, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Something has to give in the New Mexico Bowl. Central Michigan relies on a high-powered offense that has averaged 38.1 points per game over the last eight contests, San Diego State frustrates opponents with stingy defense (14 points allowed per game).

San Diego State stumbled into last year’s bowl appearance, with three straight losses, and fell 27-0 to Ohio in the Frisco Bowl, but a different vibe surrounds this team. The Aztecs exit an outstanding defensive performance to snap BYU’s five-game win streak. They forced three turnovers and allowed only three points, and no opponent has scored more than 17 against them since mid-October (six straight games).

Quarterback Ryan Agnew, who will be back under center after he missed the BYU game with a calf injury, leads a low-scoring but balanced attack. San Diego State averaged 231 passing yards over the last three games, and this offense does not give the ball away. San Diego State ranks second nationally with only seven turnovers.

Central Michigan underwent a remarkable turnaround under new coach Jim McElwain this season. The Chippewas went from 1-11 to 8-5 and won the MAC West. Quarterback Quinten Dormady had 2,148 passing yards, Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis rushed for 1,082 and 977 yards, respectively, and Kalil Pimpleton emerged as a star wideout, with 79 receptions for 823 yards.

This game will come down to how many points Central Michigan can generate. The Chippewas posted 21 points or fewer in all five losses, including a setback in the MAC Championship Game against Miami-Ohio, and they can’t afford to get away from the ground game if they fall into an early hole.

I am backing San Diego State’s elite defense. The Aztecs allowed only 75.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which also ranks second nationally, and only one team managed to rush for 135 yards or more. Central Michigan went 0-5 when it rushed for fewer than 135 yards this season. Turnovers are also likely to play a major role. Central Michigan led the nation with 15 lost fumbles and averaged nearly an interception per game. That looks like big trouble against one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country.

The MAC was down this year, which enabled Central Michigan to exceed expectations, and the Chippewas got little going offensively in their biggest games. They averaged only 13 points in losses to Buffalo, Miami-Florida, Miami-Ohio,and Wisconsin. No team has scored more than 24 points on San Diego State this season.

San Diego State can keep Central Michigan out of rhythm and grind out a comfortable win. My main play is the side, and I like the Under, given the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

NCAAF free picks: San Diego St. -3.5 and Under 40

Boca Raton Bowl: SMU at Florida Atlantic, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

A pair of high-scoring teams will meet in the Boca Raton Bowl. SMU ranks fifth at 43 points per game and Florida Atlantic is 19th at 34.7, and both won 10 games. SMU finished third in the tough AAC West, with their only losses coming to 12-1 Memphis and 10-2 Navy, while FAU was Conference USA champion.

This will be a home game for FAU, and the Owls have an interim coach (defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer), following the departure of Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss. Former Florida State coach Willie Taggart is waiting in the wings to take over after the bowl.

Sonny Dykes has things rolling in his second season at SMU. The Mustangs don’t receive a lot of exposure being in a Group of Five conference, but they have playmakers on offense and rank 12th in passing yards per game (309.3). I expect this game to be a showcase for quarterback Shane Buechele, who threw for 3,626 yards with 33 touchdowns and only two interceptions. NFL wide receiver prospects James Proche and Reggie Roberson, along with explosive running back Xavier Jones, will also have a chance to put their talents on display.

Florida Atlantic can also bring it. Quarterback Chris Robison has quality targets at his disposal and threw for 3,396 yards and 26 touchdowns this season. He did not finish the season strong, however, with a 44.6% completion rate in the final two games.

With cornerback Meiko Dotson (nine interceptions) leading the way, FAU tops the nation with 31 takeaways. However, the pass defense has been faulty (234.9 passing yards allowed per game), and the Owls played an extremely soft schedule (114th nationally) after they opened the season against Ohio State.

Both teams will make mistakes. An aggressive SMU defense has recorded 50 sacks and leads the nation with 105 tackles for a loss, and SMU is more explosive and has a significant edge on offense. The Mustangs are the superior team on both sides of the ball, and the betting line is only three points because FAU is at home.

FAU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog, and I predict SMU will win by at least a touchdown.

NCAAF free pick: SMU -3

---

Who do you like this bowl season? Make your play at BetAmerica!