Scully's Rose Bowl preview: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California is the granddaddy of them all. This year's eagerly anticipated game matches Pac-12 Conference champion Oregon against Big Ten Conference runner-up Wisconsin on Wednesday, January 1.

2020 Rose Bowl odds

Points will be at a premium against the Badgers

Wisconsin has won four straight bowl games, and posted a 3-0-1 ATS record, since hiring Paul Chryst. They bring the nation’s sixth-ranked total defense, allowing only 295.2 yards per game, and have been particularly stingy against the run. Only four opponents recorded 100+ rushing yards this season.

This coaching staff showed their chops in the Big Ten championship, jumping out to a 21-7 halftime lead against mighty Ohio State. The Badgers wound up falling in the second half, but the offensive line opened holes against a formidable run defense for Jonathon Taylor, who averaged 7.4 yards per carry while rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown. The two-time Doak Walker Award winner and first-team All-American is likely to perform well in his college finale.

Wisconsin came back strong after losses to Illinois and Ohio State

I like how Wisconsin responded after sustaining consecutive losses to Illinois and Ohio State. in October, reeling off four consecutive wins. Junior quarterback Jack Coan made better decisions, completing 68% of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions during their late-season win streak, and that stretch included key victories over Iowa and Minnesota.

Will Cristobal's conservative approach cost the Ducks?

Oregon certainly has their strengths. Justin Herbert threw for 3,333 yards and 32 touchdowns, and this offense put up 239 rushing yards against Utah’s top-ranked run defense in the Pac-12 Championship Game. They feature one of the nation’s best offensive lines. The Ducks ranked ninth in scoring defense (giving up only 16.8 points per game) and 16th in rushing defense (allowing only 116.7 yards per game).

However, Oregon employs a run-first mentality despite having one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. It’s fair to label second-year coach Mario Cristobal as conservative, with the Ducks losing last year’s Redbox Bowl by a 7-6 score to Michigan State in a pitiful offensive display, and I didn’t like Oregon’s inconsistent play late in the season. They were outgained by Arizona State and Oregon State before rebounding against Utah.

Wisconsin enters with the nation's eighth-ranked scoring defense. They allowed only 16.1 points per game on defense, and averaged 34.6 points per game on offense while playing a very tough schedule. The Badgers will be the toughest team the Ducks have faced this season.

Oregon may give them a good game in the first half, but Wisconsin will ultimately gain control and win going away.

NCAAF free pick: Wisconsin -3

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