Scully's Texas Bowl and Holiday Bowl previews
Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond drops back to pass. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire)
December 24th, 2019
College football fans will have no shortage of viewing options Friday, December 27, with five fabulous bowl games to dig into. James Scully has surveyed the schedule and has insights and analysis for the Texas Bowl, which features Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, and the Holiday Bowl between USC against Iowa.
Texas Bowl: #25 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 6:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys | +7 | +205 | O 53.5 |
Texas A&M Aggies | -7 | -260 | U 53.5 |
There should be plenty of offense on display and an exciting atmosphere in Houston, which is easily accessible for fans of both teams.
If you don’t know about OSU coach Mike Gundy and bowl games, you haven’t been paying attention. The bowl savant coach has won three straight, and seven of his last nine, at Oklahoma State, which finished tied for third in the Big 12 with an 8-4 record. Three of the last four bowl wins came as an underdog.
A&M coach Jimbo Fisher is no slouch, either. He has a 6-2 bowl record, including a 52-13 trouncing of NC State last year. After the Aggies went 9-4 in Fisher’s first season, they entered 2019 with lofty expectations, but wound up fourth in the tough West Division of the SEC with a 7-5 overall record.
Kellen Mond appeared poised for a significant jump forward, after an encouraging first year as the Texas A&M quarterback, but he struggled with accuracy during early season losses to Clemson and Auburn. The Aggies took a big hit when Jashaun Corbin, who replaced 2018 SEC rushing leader Trayveon Williams, sustained a season-ending injury in September.
After it was embarrassed by Alabama at home in mid-October, the Texas A&M offense showed progress in four straight wins as a favorite. The Aggies also gave Georgia a good game in a loss on the road. However, Texas A&M went off form in its season finale at LSU, and Mond went 10-for-30 for 97 yards through the air, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. LSU outgained A&M 553-169.
Oklahoma State was competitive in every game until its season finale, a 34-16 loss to Oklahoma, but the score was 20-13 at halftime. The Cowboys have a significant advantage at running back with Chuba Hubbard, who led the nation with 1,936 rushing yards and tied for second in touchdowns (21). I predict another big performance before he heads to the NFL.
If you don’t know about OSU coach Mike Gundy and bowl games, you haven’t been paying attention. The bowl savant coach has won three straight, and seven of his last nine, at Oklahoma State, which finished tied for third in the Big 12 with an 8-4 record. Three of the last four bowl wins came as an underdog.
A&M coach Jimbo Fisher is no slouch, either. He has a 6-2 bowl record, including a 52-13 trouncing of NC State last year. After the Aggies went 9-4 in Fisher’s first season, they entered 2019 with lofty expectations, but wound up fourth in the tough West Division of the SEC with a 7-5 overall record.
Kellen Mond appeared poised for a significant jump forward, after an encouraging first year as the Texas A&M quarterback, but he struggled with accuracy during early season losses to Clemson and Auburn. The Aggies took a big hit when Jashaun Corbin, who replaced 2018 SEC rushing leader Trayveon Williams, sustained a season-ending injury in September.
After it was embarrassed by Alabama at home in mid-October, the Texas A&M offense showed progress in four straight wins as a favorite. The Aggies also gave Georgia a good game in a loss on the road. However, Texas A&M went off form in its season finale at LSU, and Mond went 10-for-30 for 97 yards through the air, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. LSU outgained A&M 553-169.
Oklahoma State was competitive in every game until its season finale, a 34-16 loss to Oklahoma, but the score was 20-13 at halftime. The Cowboys have a significant advantage at running back with Chuba Hubbard, who led the nation with 1,936 rushing yards and tied for second in touchdowns (21). I predict another big performance before he heads to the NFL.
There's a reason Chuba Hubbard leads the FBS in rushing ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/r2NYzyma70
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 29, 2019
The Cowboys will get back freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders, who threw 2,065 yards and 16 touchdowns before he was sidelined with by a thumb injury for the final two games of the regular season, and Dru Brown proved to be a competent backup. Oklahoma State’s defense is vulnerable, but this game is all about offense. Oklahoma State can score on a Texas A&M defense that lost top lineman Justin Madubuike, who will skip the bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft, and the Aggies secondary did not perform well against good teams.
I am enthusiastically grabbing the points. The Cowboys have the offense to win outright. Texas A&M didn’t beat a team with a winning record this year, and Oklahoma State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
I am enthusiastically grabbing the points. The Cowboys have the offense to win outright. Texas A&M didn’t beat a team with a winning record this year, and Oklahoma State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
NCAAF free pick: Oklahoma State +7
Holiday Bowl: #22 USC vs. #16 Iowa, 8 p.m. ET (FS1)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys | +7 | +205 | O 53.5 |
Texas A&M Aggies | -7 | -260 | U 53.5 |
Iowa lost five straight bowl games before it defeaded Boston College and Mississippi State the last two seasons, but those teams could not push it like USC. The Trojans present a challenge with their high-powered attack, and their defense will give up points to Iowa’s pedestrian offense.
That makes the Over an attractive proposition in my estimation.
USC won its final three games and five of its last six. Second in the Pac-12 South with an 8-4 overall record, USC posted a victory over an outstanding defensive team, Utah, and scored on every second-half possession at Notre Dame to lose a close one.
USC quarterback Kedon Slovis will bring it. The freshman threw 21 touchdown passes over the final six games, with a quartet of 400+ yard passing performances, as the Trojans averaged 37.3 points per game.
Iowa ranked 10th in the nation in total defense, with 304.6 yards allowed per game, and got into a number of defensive showdowns in Big Ten play en route to a 9-3 record. However, the Hawkeyes didn’t face an offense as explosive as USC. The Hawkeyes inability to run the ball effectively is a further concern. They rank 88th nationally in rushing offense. Nate Stanley is a heady quarterback who will make some plays, but Iowa remains deliberate and averaged only 19 points over its final eight games.
USC, which enters on a 6-3-1 ATS run, has proved more than capable of attacking quality defenses, and Iowa is under pressure to start fast or risk a sizable early deficit.
I expect USC to carry its momentum forward and prevail in a high-scoring game.
That makes the Over an attractive proposition in my estimation.
USC won its final three games and five of its last six. Second in the Pac-12 South with an 8-4 overall record, USC posted a victory over an outstanding defensive team, Utah, and scored on every second-half possession at Notre Dame to lose a close one.
USC quarterback Kedon Slovis will bring it. The freshman threw 21 touchdown passes over the final six games, with a quartet of 400+ yard passing performances, as the Trojans averaged 37.3 points per game.
Iowa ranked 10th in the nation in total defense, with 304.6 yards allowed per game, and got into a number of defensive showdowns in Big Ten play en route to a 9-3 record. However, the Hawkeyes didn’t face an offense as explosive as USC. The Hawkeyes inability to run the ball effectively is a further concern. They rank 88th nationally in rushing offense. Nate Stanley is a heady quarterback who will make some plays, but Iowa remains deliberate and averaged only 19 points over its final eight games.
USC, which enters on a 6-3-1 ATS run, has proved more than capable of attacking quality defenses, and Iowa is under pressure to start fast or risk a sizable early deficit.
I expect USC to carry its momentum forward and prevail in a high-scoring game.
NCAAF free picks: USC +2 and Over 51.5
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