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Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) warms up. (Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire)
November 17th, 2021
As we enter the final two weeks of the regular season for the majority of college football teams, the Heisman Trophy race has been narrowed down to four favorites and one longshot.
Let’s see how the Heisman futures odds changed after Week 11 of the college football season!
Last week, Kenneth Walker III established himself as the favorite, with Alabama quarterback Bryce Young close behind. That all changed with the performances of the past weekend.
Walker is now co-favored to win the Heisman, dropping from +125 to +200 this week, following a solid outing against Maryland. He ran for 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Michigan State’s 40-21 victory, but his price dipped because of the stellar performances from other players.
Young has once again reclaimed a share as the favorite, with his price moving from +250 to +200. Young only played for part of the Crimson Tide’s 59-3 rout of lowly New Mexico State, but he completed 21 of his 23 pass attempts for 270 yards and five touchdowns before getting a rest and set a program record in single-game completion percentage in the process.
Since It’s 5 Days Until Alabama FootballHere’s All FIVE Touchdown Passes From Bryce Young vs New Mexico State Saturday!!!! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #RollTide #Heisman 🏆 pic.twitter.com/44zO3CdtA8— Alabama Rydeouts (@MarvinBama16) November 15, 2021
Since It’s 5 Days Until Alabama FootballHere’s All FIVE Touchdown Passes From Bryce Young vs New Mexico State Saturday!!!! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #RollTide #Heisman 🏆 pic.twitter.com/44zO3CdtA8
One of the biggest bumps of the week came for C.J. Stroud, as the Ohio State quarterback moved from +500 to +250, his lowest odds of the season.
Stroud led the Buckeyes to a 59-31 win over a ranked Purdue team and passed for 361 yards and five touchdowns.
That pushed his total to 30 touchdowns on the season, while he has thrown just five interceptions.
No. 4 Ohio State solidified their status as a CFP team with a 59-31 triumph over No. 19 Purdue! 💪Buckeyes -19.5 💵Over 65 pts 💵C.J. Stroud Over 325.5 pass yds 💵Garrett Wilson Over 79.5 rec yds 💵#BoilerUp | #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/7T29NIP2XM— TwinSpires Sportsbook 💵 (@TS_Sportsbook) November 14, 2021
No. 4 Ohio State solidified their status as a CFP team with a 59-31 triumph over No. 19 Purdue! 💪Buckeyes -19.5 💵Over 65 pts 💵C.J. Stroud Over 325.5 pass yds 💵Garrett Wilson Over 79.5 rec yds 💵#BoilerUp | #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/7T29NIP2XM
Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral shortened his price, as well, from +650 to +550.
Corral threw for 247 yards and just one touchdown, while he lost five yards on the ground, but he was a key reason for the Rebels knocking off 11th-ranked Texas A&M in a 10-point victory.
The one fringe player who is hanging around and has an actual shot of crashing the party in New York City is Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett. He halved his price this week to +2000 with a strong showing against North Carolina.
Kenny Pickett: 92.9 PFF Grade vs. the blitz this season1st among all QBs in college football ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/Ug7FiwJ01U— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 16, 2021
Kenny Pickett: 92.9 PFF Grade vs. the blitz this season1st among all QBs in college football ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/Ug7FiwJ01U
In the Panthers' 30-23 overtime win, Pickett threw for 346 yards and a trio of touchdowns, and has thrown for nearly 1,300 yards in his last three games. With 32 touchdown passes to just four interceptions this year, he is continuing to make a strong case.
Ah, poor Caleb Williams. Just two weeks after being introduced to the TwinSpires Heisman futures odds, the Oklahoma quarterback vanished as quickly as he arrived.
And y’all wanted to give Caleb Williams the Heisman…😂 pic.twitter.com/IlgrVcA2QO— Tim England (@tengland_150) November 13, 2021
And y’all wanted to give Caleb Williams the Heisman…😂 pic.twitter.com/IlgrVcA2QO
A +900 contender last week, you can now get the freshman at +10000, following his poor performance in the Sooners’ 27-14 defeat at Baylor.
Williams completed just half of his 18 throws for 142 yards and a pair of interceptions, although he did run for a score. However, he was benched in the fourth quarter for previous starter Spencer Rattler, and given the performances of those ahead of him, the chances he rebounds are slim to none.
Desmond Ridder continued his slide. Although Cincinnati remains unbeaten, there is virtually no chance of him winning the award. Despite throwing for 304 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 45-28 win over USF, Ridder’s price dipped from +4000 to +5000.
The final player who is worth looking at — Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson — also slid, and his hopes are being dashed by every big play his quarterback makes.
While he has now topped the 1,000-yard mark on the season and has 17 total touchdowns, he has not surpassed 100 yards in three of his last four games.
Walker and Stroud will face off Saturday in one of the biggest games of the college football season, and the winner could go a long way toward cementing his place in New York City.
The fourth-ranked Buckeyes host the seventh-ranked Spartans in a game that will likely eliminate one of them from the Big Ten title game.
If you like Stroud to win, this may be the last shot you have at getting him at better than +200 odds. Stroud also has a showdown with Michigan next week, which means he would likely need to win both games to win the trophy.
However, a loss or poor showing in either game would shorten the odds for Walker and make his price as likely a bargain as you will see.
The stage is set for either C.J. Stroud or Kenneth Walker to make a statement in the Heisman race Saturday, as two of the top three frontrunners for the trophy go head-to-head. https://t.co/ISKk93Mgwj— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 17, 2021
The stage is set for either C.J. Stroud or Kenneth Walker to make a statement in the Heisman race Saturday, as two of the top three frontrunners for the trophy go head-to-head. https://t.co/ISKk93Mgwj
As for Young, a matchup in the Iron Bowl awaits him and Alabama next weekend, along with a likely meeting with Georgia in the SEC Championship.
Both of those games are weighing on his price at the moment, as neither is a guaranteed win. Should he stumble, he could see the Heisman slip away. Win both games, however, and it may not matter what the other contenders do.
Pickett’s chances are hampered by a lack of a strong opponent down the stretch for Pitt, while Corral simply isn’t putting up the numbers needed to keep pace with the top three.
Both will need to put up monstrous stat lines over the final two weeks to have a real shot, but they have a chance to do so this weekend, with matchups against Virginia and Vanderbilt, respectfully.
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