Churchill Downs (Friday, May 2)

Race #11 Kentucky Oaks (G1)

$100 Bankroll

Picks:

• #9 Tenma (12-1)
• #11 Good Cheer (6-5)
• #10 Take Charge Milady (12-1)

Wagers:

• $60 to win on #9 Tenma
• $10 Exacta: key box 9 with 10,11 ($40)

#9 Tenma Trainer Bob Baffert goes for his fourth career Kentucky Oaks (G1) victory with this lovely daughter of Nyquist, who has won five of six career starts. Although this striking dark bay filly has never raced outside of California, she stamped herself as superior quality by taking the Del Mar Debutante (G1), Starlet (G2), and Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on the West Coast. She’ll likely sit midpack behind a lively early pace and come running late. Today’s stretch-out to nine furlongs is well within her wheelhouse, and she arrives in Kentucky a relatively fresh horse with only two starts this year. 

The Godolphin homebred #11 Good Cheer is undefeated in six career tries and is a legitimate favorite to take this year’s edition for conditioner Brad Cox, who shoots for his third Kentucky Oaks victory. The daughter of Medagila d’Oro has won three straight graded stake events, is proven over the Churchill surface, and has been training superbly leading up to the big dance. Her pedigree screams distance top and bottom, and she should love every bit of today's 1 1/8-mile trip. 

#10 Take Charge Milady rebounded nicely to finish second in the Ashland (G1) after a disappointing try in the Honeybee (G3) for last year’s winning trainer Kenny McPeek. Although this gal has a long way to go to match the success of champion Thorpedo Anna, she’s coming into today’s race in good form and has fired back-to-back bullet drills at Oaklawn and Churchill. The daughter of Florida Derby (G1) winner Take Charge Indy could be peaking at just the right time.

Churchill Downs (Saturday, May 3)

Race #12: Kentucky Derby (G1)

$100 Bankroll

Picks:

• #8 Journalism (3-1)
• #1 Citizen Bull (20-1)
• #3 Final Gambit (30-1)

Wagers:

• $60 Win #8 Journalism
• $10 Exacta: key box: 8 with 1,3 ($40)

From the minute #8 Journalism (3-1) stepped on the track for the post parade of the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita to start his 2025 campaign, he looked like a colt that had progressed immensely in a short period of time. The strapping son of multiple Grade 1-winner Curlin looks like the complete Kentucky Derby package. He’s fast early and late. A winner of four straight for trainer Michael McCarthy, including the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his most recent start, the versatile colt showed extreme athleticism and tenacity in that event after being shuffled and pinned in before shaking free late and chasing down the eventual runner-up Baeza. That professional winning effort should set him up perfectly for the Kentucky Derby (G1). He’s nicely drawn in post 8, and has looked fabulous stretching his legs over the Churchill Downs main track. If there’s a potential chink in his armor, perhaps it’s the fact that he hasn’t faced a bulky field like the 20-horse lineup on Saturday. But, the same could be said for several other rivals. I think he is up to the task, and at odds of 2-1 or better, he represents a solid win bet opportunity. 

If it wasn’t for the tricky rail draw, #1 Citizen Bull (20-1) would have been my top selection. The Baffert trainee was a short horse when finishing behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and is likely to move forward substantially off that effort. This bay son of Into Mischief won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in gate-to-wire fashion, and followed up that impressive upset score by taking the Robert B. Lewis (G2) to start the year. After missing some training time, he looks to have hit his best stride in recent weeks for the six-time Derby-winning Hall of Famer, as evidenced by his local five-furlong bullet breeze in :58.20 over the Churchill strip. The colt only needs to work out a decent trip from jockey Martin Garcia to threaten the top choice. 

Juddmonte’s #3 Final Gambit (30-1) has never raced on dirt, but has the feel of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, who parlayed his victory over the synthetic footing in the Spiral Stakes (G3) into a smashing 2 3/4-length Derby victory. The Brad Cox-trained gray colt has some of the strongest Brisnet Late Pace ratings in the field, and is one to use underneath in all your vertical exotics. He closed stoutly to take the Jeff Ruby S. (G3) by 3 1/2 lengths in his last Derby prep and has looked comfortable working over the Churchill dirt with a steady stream of promising maintenance drills.