76ers vs. Celtics: The best player prop bets for Dec. 1

It’s an Atlantic Division showdown between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics tonight. Both the Sixers and Celtics have been marred by injuries and have just recently seen key players return to the lineup. With both teams at a disappointing 11-10 on the year, which players will help their team break out in the heavily contested Eastern Conference playoff race?

76ers vs. Celtics is set to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV, and we have the three best player prop bets for tonight's game below.

JOEL EMBIID OVER/UNDER 23.5 POINTS

Joel Embiid has missed 10 games this year already, most of which was due to a recent serious bout with COVID-19. Yet somehow immediately on coming back from what has been a debilitating illness for many players, Embiid went right back to resuming his dominant play.

In his first game back, a double OT thriller against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Embiid had 42 points and 14 rebounds, and he mashed Minnesota’s frontline to the tune of 21 free throw attempts. And while he struggled from the field in his second game back against the Orlando Magic, he still managed 16 points and 13 rebounds.

The difference between those two games? When Embiid is in attack mode, a team either needs genuine size like the Magic have, or they need a disciplined plan to slow him down. Teams used to simply double Embiid on the catch in the post, but he’s become too good passing out of that situation for that to be effective. Instead, look for Boston to try and double him on the bounce, once he has a live dribble. The Celtics haven’t been very good at this in the past, despite their otherwise solid defensive execution. 

The Celtics are also going to be looking to reintegrate Robert Williams in the lineup tonight after he's missed most of the last few weeks with a combination of illness and injury. Embiid will punish the Celtics for any momentary lapse or rust.

PICK: OVER 23.5 POINTS (-105)

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JAYSON TATUM OVER/UNDER 24.5 POINTS

Though boasting impressive counting stats at 24.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, this has likely been the worst start in Jayson Tatum’s career. Despite having a career-high in usage at 31.1%, Tatum is scoring less effectively than at any previous point of his career. He’s shooting under 40% from the field, and 31.6% from 3. It looked like he was breaking out of his slump briefly, but over his last five games, his splits have been even worse (36.4% from the field, 26.2% from 3).

The puzzling part is that his shot diet hasn’t changed at all compared to previous years, and unlike many struggling stars this season, he’s actually been getting to the foul line more. The difference is that in the past he’s managed to stay efficient in tightly contested or very contested shots per the NBA’s tracking data, whereas this year he basically can’t hit anything unless he’s wide open.

Tatum is struggling on every kind of shot outside of wide-open ones, and those shots just won’t be there often enough against Matisse Thybulle, who has an argument for the best perimeter defender in the NBA right now. With Jaylen Brown’s status for tonight still uncertain, it could be a long night for Tatum.

PICK: UNDER 24.5 POINTS (-107)

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TYRESE MAXEY OVER/UNDER 15.5 POINTS

Talk about breakout seasons. Tyrese Maxey certainly had flashes in year one, but only the most fervent 76ers or Kentucky Wildcats fans predicted that Maxey would ascend to legitimate starting point guard status this soon in his NBA career. That he’s made this leap with so many key Sixers players in and out of the lineup only makes it more impressive.

A big key to Maxey’s success this year is an obvious one. He’s become a much more proficient 3-point shooter, up to 38% in non-garbage time minutes, per Cleaning the Glass. But he’s still keeping the main thing the main thing, and instead of falling in love with the 3, he’s using it to open up his driving game. Maxey is shooting 62% at the rim, good for a guard his size, but he's managing to get there for 35% of his overall shot attempts, and drawing fouls on 12.1% of his shots, which puts him in the 92nd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass.

The Celtics, despite starting two bigs in Al Horford and Robert Williams, have been one of the league’s poorest rim-protecting teams in the NBA this season. They’ve allowed 66.4% shooting at the rim, the sixth worst in the NBA. Maxey is set to carve them up inside to hit this Over.

PICK: OVER 15.5 POINTS