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Bucks vs. Hawks: The best Giannis Antetokounmpo prop bets for Game 4

Milwaukee Bucks power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. (Photo by JB Autissier/Panoramic/Icon Sportswire)

Dan Halverson

June 29th, 2021

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The Milwaukee Bucks staged an impressive comeback on the road in Game 3 against the Atlanta Hawks and have recaptured the home court advantage they had to begin the series.

With Trae Young listed as questionable for Game 4, the Hawks find themselves with an uphill climb the rest of the way. They are seven-point underdogs this evening, and will undoubtedly face an onslaught of pressure from Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Let’s take a look at three best player props bets for "The Greek Freak."

Over/Under 32.5 points

Giannis is well-known for his athleticism and his ability to dominate any single defender with his unique combination of size and speed. However, he's never been an elite outside shooter and opposing defenses routinely try to force him to be a jump shooter.

In this series, the Hawks have tried to form a wall to keep Antetokounmpo out of the paint. He has still averaged 30.7 points per game, but in Game 3 it was actually Khris Middleton that led the Bucks in scoring with 38.

KHRIS MIDDLETON THREE STRAIGHT THREES TO PUT MILWAUKEE BACK ON TOP!

He's got 32.. under 6 minutes on TNT. #NBAPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/q9LfJzl2Z8

— NBA (@NBA) June 28, 2021

Death-by-outside-shooting is more favorable than interior punishment, so look for the Hawks to force Middleton to beat them again and continue their strategy of pushing Giannis outside. The Hawks have good athletes on the interior, and while Antetokounmpo is almost certain to get close to this number, it's just a couple points too high. Let’s play against the public and take the Under.

Pick: Under 32.5 points (-109)


Over/Under 12.5 rebounds

Giannis has totaled 12 rebounds, nine rebounds, and 11 rebounds in the opening three games. He can effectively get boards when he makes the effort to do so thanks to his athleticism, and in Game 4 I expect a very high-effort game as he tries to capture a 3-1 lead that would make the series all but over heading back to Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo has never been to the NBA Finals, and is well aware that a big effort this evening could put him on the doorstep.

Another look at Giannis' rebound & SLAM to hype up the @Bucks crowd inside & outside the building! #ThatsGame pic.twitter.com/etpRrNk8RG

— NBA (@NBA) June 18, 2021

Giannis has averaged 9.1 rebounds per game over the course of his career, but that number increases to 11.5 in the playoffs. The Hawks are just a slightly-above average rebounding team, and were only 17th-best in the NBA at defensive rebounding percentage this year. Look for "The Greek Freak" to crash the glass on offense and pick up a few offensive rebounds to push him over this total.

Pick: Over 12.5 rebounds (-113)


Over/Under 5.5 assists 

If Antetokounmpo is being doubled in the paint or forced to kick when he drives, other Bucks should be open to capitalize. Middleton was the primary benefactor in Game 3, and Giannis tallied nine assists on Sunday, double his career average.

If we stick to the premise that the Hawks will prefer to push him out and force somebody else to beat them, it makes sense to take the Over on Giannis’ projected assists total as he'll create easy looks for his teammates with his aggressiveness and athleticism.

Pick: Over 5.5 assists (-117)

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