Bucks vs. Heat: The best player prop bets for Dec. 8

Some matchups on the NBA calendar just mean more than others. That's certainly the case any time the current incarnations of the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat square off, as the two teams have taken turns eliminating each other in the playoffs the last two years. The Heat are shorthanded tonight, and will need a collective effort to stand a chance against the defending champs. Are they up to the task?

Bucks vs. Heat is set to tip at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, and we have the three best player prop bets below.

GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO OVER/UNDER 42.5 POINTS, REBOUNDS, and ASSISTS

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s moniker is the "Greek Freak", but I’ve always been partial to thinking of him as the "Greek God", or more specifically, Atlas, the giant on whom the weight of the whole world rests. Giannis’ shoulders that load for the Bucks on a nightly basis, and despite significant injuries and COVID-19 absences up and down Milwaukee’s roster, he has the Bucks humming along at a 55-win pace.

Most teams don't have an answer for Giannis. Hell, most aren’t sure what the right question to ask is. Do we limit him as a playmaker? Double on the bounce? Do we stay home on shooters in transition or form a wall at all costs?

The Heat though, are a different story. Last year, Giannis averaged an efficient 28.1 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.9 assists - but in three games against the Heat those numbers plummeted to 16.7 points and 9.3 rebounds on less than 50% from the field. Giannis did see his assist rise to and 6.7, but that's a fine trade to make in exchange for nearly 12 points and a reduced presence on the glass. 

That’s because Bam Adebayo might be the best individual matchup for Giannis in the NBA. Even when the Bucks swept the Heat out of the playoffs last year, Giannis’ own numbers were relatively pedestrian in large part because of Bam. With Adebayo out though, that formula falls apart. It would take a truly Herculean effort from the Heat’s remaining players to slow down Giannis tonight.

PICK: OVER 42.5 POINTS, REBOUNDS, and ASSISTS (-125)

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TYLER HERRO OVER/UNDER 22.5 POINTS

For a minute there, it seemed like the bloom had come off the rose for Tyler Herro. His performance in the Bubble led to outlandish expectations, and despite actually improving in many areas of his game last season, he earned the reputation of being an overhyped flash in the pan. 

The people holding those views are now looking quite foolish, as Herro has continued to build out his game and now leads the Heat in usage rate at 29.3% while maintaining a stellar 52.2 eFG% on a difficult shot diet.

Herro is the classic microwave scorer off the bench, currently thrust into a starting role with the Heat missing Jimmy Butler. While he rarely scores inside, he’s become a dynamite jump shooter and is taking seven 3s per game and hitting at a 39.6% clip. The Bucks famously are willing to concede 3s if it means defending the rim, and don’t have great personnel to chase Herro around screens when he and Kyle Lowry share the court. Given Herro’s effectiveness to date, opposing scheme, and his increased opportunity, the Over seems like a solid play here.

PICK: OVER 22.5 POINTS (-113)

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KHRIS MIDDLETON OVER/UNDER 4.5 ASSISTS

Despite becoming an NBA champion, it’s fair to say that Khris Middleton remains one of the more underrated stars in the league. Middleton has had a down scoring year, at 17.9 points on 48.4% from the field, but he’s quietly doing something very impressive.

Middleton is averaging 5.1 assists per game, and he’s close to completing the final evolution from big wing scoring threat to undeniable offensive initiator. With Middleton’s shooting, handling, and driving ability, significant playmaking reps could see him take another real leap. And he appears to be making that leap right now, as his 25.6% assist percentage is in the 94th percentile among all forwards, and his 0.90 assist-to-usage ratio is in the 91st percentile and best on the team. 

Oh, and in his previous game against the Heat on Dec. 4, Middleton had nine assists. Middleton the playmaker has arrived.

PICK: OVER 4.5 ASSISTS (-125)