Bucks vs. Suns: The best Chris Paul prop bets for Game 5 of the NBA Finals

The Phoenix Suns made it to the 2021 NBA Finals with a combination of young talent, great coaching, and veteran leadership, and that same combination propelled them to an early 2-0 series lead.

The team then took to the road, where their veteran leader, Chris Paul, struggled tremendously. Paul was the catalyst for many of the Suns’ wins this postseason, carrying the team with pivotal scoring runs and heady play that made him look 10 years younger than he is. His assist to turnover ratio had been elite, and his mid-range jumper seemed unstoppable.

However, the Paul we saw all year looked like a shadow of himself in Milwaukee. He averaged just 14.5 points per game in the two defeats after averaging 24.0 and 25.5 per game against the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, respectively. He also tallied nine turnovers, which is three more than he had in the four-game sweep of the Nuggets.

Let’s take a look at Paul’s betting props for Game 5 on Saturday night, and predict whether the 11-time All-Star will rediscover his mojo at home.

Over/Under 21.5 points

Paul’s Game 5 point total is set at 21.5, which seems high for a player that is being picked up nearly 94 feet from the basket by Bucks guard Jrue Holliday. The Bucks and head coach Mike Budenholzer aren’t stupid; they saw that Paul was the difference-maker in the second half of many Suns playoff victories, and have been trying to force the ball out of Paul’s hands and wear him down.

With Holliday, Paul is hardly being given the breathing room to even get to the screener. Holliday is an elite defender that is larger than Paul, but can stay with him in a mad dash to the basket. Because of his longevity in the league, the shimmies that may work for Paul against younger guards aren’t as effective as Holliday. Holliday stays in sound position and rarely falls for the head fakes that Paul is so famous for.

Assuming Holliday continues to hound Paul with the stamina he showed in Milwaukee, "CP3" will not be in a position to get many open looks. Take the Under on a player that averaged 16.4 points per game during the regular season and has been largely shut down in recent contests.

Pick: Under 21.5 points (-107)

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Over/Under 8.5 assists

Paul is averaging 8.2 assists per game, having tallied nine in each of the last two games. He averaged 8.9 assists per game through the regular season, so he’s basically in line with his normal numbers.

For Game 5, I believe the Suns will adjust to Holliday’s constant pressure on Paul and expect Devin Booker and Cameron Payne to handle the ball far more often.

Booker stepped up in Game 4 with a huge bounceback performance, scoring 42 points. He was clearly frustrated by the final result as all great competitors would be, and has plenty of fire and energy to handle additional playmaking duties.

Payne also offers an intriguing alternative for the Suns, as his quickness should give Holliday more difficulty and might be a good counter to the current Bucks strategy. If Holliday’s sole defensive mission is to dispossess Paul of the basketball, I will look for others to be more involved and for Paul to hit the Under this assist total.

Pick: Under 8.5 assists (+100)

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Over/Under 3.5 Rebounds

Paul had zero rebounds in Game 4, but averaged 4.5 boards per game in the regular season and 4.0 per game in the three games prior. Despite his small stature, he always finds a way to get to the right spot on the court to catch long rebounds.

Paul is a fighter in search of his first championship, and while he may not be getting the opportunity to score as many points as we have been accustomed to throughout this postseason, he can still affect the game in other ways. Tight on-ball defensive position can sometimes cause a defender to forfeit optimal rebounding position, and Paul is savvy enough to feign toward the ball only to reverse course and achieve better backside positioning for a shooter’s long miss.

With both teams seemingly content to push the pace, I think Paul will snag enough rebounds to hit the Over on this prop.

Pick: Over 3.5 rebounds (-139)