Bucks vs. Suns: NBA Finals Game 5 betting odds, preview, and pick

Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks delivered the best basketball of the series to date. The dueling 40+ point games from Devin Booker and Khris Middleton and an all-time iconic block by Giannis Antetokounmpo will be what is remembered years from now.

But it was also a strange game in many ways, with much to say about the potential conclusion to the series. And the stakes for Game 5 couldn’t be greater. Teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 series in the NBA playoffs have gone on to win the series 82% of the time.

Tip-off for Game 5 is at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC, and we have our preview and picks below.

THE BUCKS WIN UGLY

The Bucks don’t play the prettiest brand of basketball, or at least they haven't lately. They shot only 40% from the field and just 24.1% from 3, and yet they still won the game. The Bucks are getting by on Giannis’ greatness, pounding the ball inside and drawing plentiful free throws.

Antetokounmpo looked merely mortal for much of the game, and his early tentativeness had onlookers and commentators worrying that his knee injury had finally caught up to him. But he steadied as the game went on, and broke out one of the greatest blocks in playoff history to boot. He showed on possession after possession why he's a former Defensive Player of the Year, disrupting Phoenix as a help defender

While Deandre Ayton proved a formidable foil to Nikola Jokic, Giannis’ game is predicated on a kind of force that Ayton simply cannot hope to match at this point in his career. While Ayton managed to amass 17 rebounds, he only scored six points as Chris Paul struggled to get him involved. Lopez is playing much more situationally now, as Giannis is leaning into his role as a small-ball center. The battle of the bigs is tipping strongly in Milwaukee’s favor.

KHRIS MIDDLETON COMES THROUGH

The Suns decided to switch the pick and roll in Game 4 after getting burned in Game 3 when they tried to double the ball and recover.

The Bucks countered by doing something that many fans have been calling for nearly the entirety of the eight years that Antetokounmpo and Middleton have been teammates - they went to a Giannis/Middleton pick and roll, with Giannis screening and rolling. This consistently created huge gaps for Middleton to shoot from as Giannis drew the defense with him to the rim.

Even as the Bucks offense looked mechanical at times, Middleton was able to get enough going in straight isolation to keep the Bucks afloat. He didn’t have the most efficient night, but Middleton came up big when it counted, and carried the Bucks to victory down the stretch. 

This was more impressive still as Jrue Holiday, after having a stupendous Game 3, returned to the doldrums in Game 4, with a desultory 4-20 shooting game. Holiday’s decision-making was almost as bad as his shooting, however, as he missed easy mismatches whenever Giannis was playing against Phoenix as Ayton sat. The Bucks managed to win with Holiday as offensive dead weight, but his ongoing inconsistency is perilous for Milwaukee.

BOOKER BURNS BRIGHT AS PAUL FADES

Booker’s Game 4 was a sight to behold. Those 42 points (on over 60% shooting mind you) catapulted him to the top of a prestigious leaderboard, as he now holds the record for most points scored in a playoffs debut. Booker got loose from all over the court, simply rising up and scoring over the best efforts of P.J. Tucker. 

He might have had 50 or more if not for his foul woes, and frankly was lucky not to foul out more than once in crunch time.

Chris Paul meanwhile had his worst game of the playoffs, perhaps one of the worst games of his career. Paul only going 5-13 from the field is one thing, but racking up a whopping five turnovers to only seven assists is completely uncharacteristic. 

And zooming in on his performance is important. While in most cases, you can look at a Game 3 from Booker and you can reasonably expect a star of Paul’s caliber to bounce back with a vengeance, the issues that Paul was having were troubling.

At times he simply fumbled his dribble under minimal pressure. Some might credit Holiday’s pressure defense, but a close inspection shows that none of Paul’s turnovers were forced by him. "CP3" has made a living on his ball-handling and game management against stiffer opposition than this. Even against Giannis or Bobby Portis, Paul had limited success as an isolation scorer.

Paul said after Game 6 against the Clippers that an MRI revealed that he had multiple torn ligaments in his right hand. This is on top of the nerve the shoulder injury against the Lakers. Paul has been gamely playing through injury, but it’s possible that its effects are beginning to mount, if true, this could spell doom for the Suns’ title hopes.

NBA FINALS Game 5 PICK: BUCKS +4

The Suns will get a boost in their return home, but the Bucks have improved in every series the longer they go on. While the value on the moneyline pick isn’t quite there for me, I like the Bucks to cover.

FEATURED PLAYER PROP: CHRIS PAUL UNDER 38.5 POINTS, REBOUNDS, and ASSISTS

As previously discussed, something appears to be wrong with Paul. While he can never be counted out of a bounce-back game, when he reviews the film he'll see that some of his worst follies came as he tried to do too much. I expect him to play a more under-control game, but with his limitations and potential injury issues, taking the Under on his overall production is a good bet.