Can Simmons steal the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award from Gobert?

Rudy Gobert is heavily favored to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year honors, but Ben Simmons believes he is the league’s best stopper.

Gobert is looking to become only the fourth player in NBA history to win the Defensive Player of the Year award three times. He would join Dikembe Mutombo, Ben Wallace, and Dwight Howard in that elite club of all-time great defenders. Simmons, meanwhile, is seeking his first Defensive Player of the Year award.

Numbers Never Lie

Simmons has had an excellent year defensively in 2020-21. The towering Sixers guard has averaged 5.7 defensive rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game. Only Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, and Dejounte Murray averaged more defensive rebounds per game at the guard position. 

Simmons is sixth in the league in steals per game, and only three guards have more blocks per game than he does. Another impressive stat for Simmons’ case is his defensive win share (DWS), which measures the number of wins a player contributes due to their defense. Simmons is tied for fourth in the league with a 3.2 DWS. 

One final advanced stat that stands out is Simmons' defensive box plus/minus rating. This stat is a box score estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team. Simmons clocks in with a +1.9 in this category, which is tied for eighth best in the league.

This is not a guard's award

In the history of the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, which dates back to the 1982-83 season, a guard has only won six times. The last guard to win this award was Gary Payton in 1996 season.

In that season, Payton averaged an amazing 2.9 steals per game. Only Larry Hughes in the has averaged more steals per game since then, and that was way back in 2004-05. Payton also had a defensive win share of 5.6, and a defensive box plus/minus of +1.8.

Before Payton, Michael Jordan was the last guard to win this award in 1988. These trends are not favorable for Simmons’ chances at upsetting Gobert.

No denying the Stifle Tower

Gobert is the heavy favorite for a reason. Simmons has a great defensive record of accomplishment and has some excellent numbers, but Gobert can match and beat him in just about every category.

Gobert is averaging 10.0 defensive rebounds, 0.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks per game. He also has a 4.9 defensive win share and a +2.5 defensive box plus/minus. He leads the entire league in defensive rebounds per game, blocks per game, and defensive win share. He is also tied for fifth in the league in defensive box plus/minus.

There is not a lot of value in taking Gobert at this point, but based on history and current statistics, it's hard to imagine the French Rejection not snagging this award for the third time in four seasons.