Grizzlies vs. Warriors: Expect a 3-point barrage from Steph Curry

The eighth seed in the Western Conference is on the line in Friday’s win-or-go-home battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors.

Set for 9:00 p.m. ET inside the Chase Center, the final matchup of the inaugural NBA Play-In Tournament will see two of the best defenses in the league square off for the second time this week.

The winner will advance to the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs, where they will meet the top-seeded Utah Jazz, who owned the best record in the 2020-21 regular season.

The Warriors narrowly missed their opportunity to secure the No. 7 seed in their first play-in game, where they fell 103-100 to the Los Angeles Lakers, who will face No. 2 Phoenix in the first round on Sunday.

The Grizzlies, with the ninth-best record in the conference, defeated the San Antonio Spurs 100-96 on Thursday, and earned the opportunity to play Golden State for the final seed in the West.

Friday night’s game will be a rematch of one we witnessed just five days ago, in the final regular-season game on the Warriors and Grizzlies’ schedule.

In that contest, which ultimately determined the Play-In Tournament seeding, Golden State handled Memphis 113-101 at home, while Steph Curry went off for 46 points.

With that matchup in mind and these two teams’ most recent play-in games, let’s look at the three best player props to bet for Friday night’s matchup.

Curry Over/Under 6.5 three-point field goals made

As Curry goes, so goes the Warriors, and in a winner-take-all scenario like Friday's, the chef will bring the heat.

Curry missed the first two regular-season matchups with Memphis because of a tailbone injury, but he lit up the Grizz for 46 points in Golden State's most recent meeting.

Twenty-seven of those points came from behind the arc, as Steph hit 9-of-22 treys against a team that finished the season ranked 17th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Curry hit six 3-pointers against the Lakers' top-five 3-point defense, and will exceed that performance against a Memphis defense that struggles to defend the three.

Pick: Over 6.5 (+100)

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Jonas Valanciunas Over/Under 15.5 rebounds

The x-factor for the Grizzlies is Jonas Valanciunas, who put up 23 points, 23 rebounds, and blocked three shots in Memphis' win over San Antonio on Wednesday.

While there is virtually no value in betting Valanciunas to record a double-double (-1430) in Friday's game, one prop bet worth backing is the Over/Under on rebounds.

In his most recent meeting with Golden State, Valanciunas grabbed 16 boards and has averaged just over 16 rebounds in his past six games.

The Warriors surrendered the fourth most opponent rebounds per game this season and will fail to keep Valanciunas off the glass in this matchup.

Pick: Over 15.5 (-105)

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Ja Morant Over/Under 21.5 points

While Valanciunas should enjoy another huge outing on Friday, expect a modest scoring night for point guard Ja Morant.

The team's points leader throughout the regular season (19.1 ppg) has surpassed the 20-point mark just once in his past six games.

In the regular-season finale against Golden State, he scored 16 points on 33.3% shooting from the field, including 16.7% from three.

In a 111-103 victory over Golden State back in March, Morant finished with 14 points while hitting 5-of-20 from the field and 1-of-5 from 3-point land. The game prior, against Golden State, he matched that scoring output on 6-of-12 shooting from the field.

Based on Morant's past performances against Golden State this season, and his recent overall production, look to Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks to take on the brunt of the scoring, and take the Under on Morant's total points.

Pick: Under 21.5 (-113)