Grizzlies vs. Warriors: The best player prop bets for the final Play-In game

The official start of the 2021 NBA Playoffs is Saturday, but before that, the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies have some unfinished business.  The final Play-In game is at 9:00 p.m. ET Friday night on ESPN, and sees Steph Curry and the Warriors trying to rebound against a young and hungry Memphis Grizzlies squad.

The Warriors were on the losing end of a true instant classic, another myth-making performance between Steph and LeBron James that had some reflecting that this is the closest the NBA has come to a Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird rivalry since the 1980s.

Memphis, meanwhile, seemed to be in cruise control early in their game against the San Antonio Spurs, but as young teams often do they gave away a massive lead and had to essentially win the game twice.

This promises to be an exciting matchup, with all the stakes of a Game 7. Can the Grizz exorcise their Play-In demons? Or will Steph go nuclear on national TV? We’ve examined the matchup closely and have selected the three best players props to wager on.

Steph Curry Over/Under 49.5 Total Points, Rebounds & Assists

Steph Curry just put together his most complete individual season since his unanimous MVP run in 2015-16, capturing the scoring title and silencing the doubters who thought he was no longer an MVP-caliber player.

He played an outstanding game against the Lakers, tallying 39 points on 23 field goal attempts despite the Lakers doing their best to force the ball out of his hands on every possession. His play alone might have cost Dennis Schröder in the tens of millions of dollars in his upcoming free agency, after burning the Laker guard at will on the perimeter.

Dillon Brooks is no Dennis Schroder though. He is an outstanding perimeter defender and will be in NBA All-Defense conversations for the duration of his career. He will make Steph work for every point. He also leads in the NBA in personal fouls, and his fouling out in the so-called play-in to the Play-In was what ultimately sunk the Grizzlies.

But It takes an entire team effort to guard Steph, and he has perhaps the greatest combination of skill, craft, and conditioning of any modern NBA guard.

I’m banking on Steph getting loose and producing against Memphis.

Pick: OVER 49.5 (-113)

Ja Morant Over/Under 21.5 points

In Morant’s 10 games prior to the Play-In Tournament, his shooting splits had slipped to 40/32/68, and in the last game against the Warriors, he struggled to 16 points on 21 shots. The burden of carrying the Memphis playmaking role for an entire season seems to have caught up with Ja, as he has been unusually passive in recent weeks.

The Warriors have the fifth-best defense in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass, and they are pioneers in the field when it comes to exposing non-shooters in playoff situations. The Warriors will give Morant the Tony Allen treatment, going under every screen, packing the paint, and daring him to shoot from deep. Ja has not yet proven he can punish defenses for playing him this way, so I’m betting that he has a low-scoring performance.

Pick: Under 21.5 points (-113)

Jonas Valančiūnas Over/Under 19.5 points

While the Warriors game plan disrupted Ja, they had no answer for the Lithuanian Lightning himself, Jonas Valančiūnas. JV had 29 points on 15 shots and also chipped in 16 rebounds, far above his averages of 17.1 and 12.5 on the season.

Valančiūnas is practically unstoppable in the post, and seems to get to the middle of the paint for every offensive rebound. The Warriors' best lineups have eschewed a traditional big for years now, with Draymond playing the center spot. And while the Warriors won the minutes that JV was on the floor by 13, they didn’t slow down Valančiūnas at all.

JV cannot be guarded without a traditional center that can match his strength and size. Draymond said recently "he’s a dog," which is why he’s so good at guarding big, but defending Anthony Davis, who uses a combination of skill, speed, and size to beat you is a totally different animal than guarding Valančiūnas.

Pick: Over 19.5 points