Knicks vs. Nets: The best player prop bets for Nov. 30

It’s another highly anticipated battle of the boroughs tonight, as the 14-6 Brooklyn Nets host the 11-9 New York Knicks. The Nets are looking to rebound after a rough loss to the Phoenix Suns, and the Knicks are hoping to find some consistency after a strong win over the Atlanta Hawks.

Knicks vs. Nets tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT, and we have the three best player prop bets below.

ALEC BURKS OVER/UNDER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE

The Knicks made news this week when Tom Thibodeau revealed that starting point guard and former All-Star Kemba Walker would no longer be in the rotation. New York's starters have been struggling out of the gates, sputtering to a disastrous -15.9 net rating. So, while it was shocking that Thibodeau pulled the plug, the numbers support the move. In 1,019 possessions with Walker off the court, the Knicks are +14.0, and an ungodly -13.2 in 889 possessions with him on.

Elevated in Walker's place is one Alec Burks. The team got a look at him as the starting point guard last game against the Hawks, as Kemba opted not to play in the second game of their road back-to-back. Against Atlanta, Burks notched 23 points on 7-17 shooting from the field, including 4-7 on 3s. He also played nearly 40 minutes, a strong indicator that Thibs will not view Burks as a token starter, but rather as someone who will be a major feature of the rotation going forward. 

In about 22 minutes per game this year, Burks is shooting 45.1% from 3 on 4.6 attempts, numbers which should rise significantly as he assumes his new starting role. Burks is also an extremely capable off-the-dribble shotmaker, which means that even with greater defensive attention, he’s still likely to get his looks off.

PICK: OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (-139)

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PATTY MILLS OVER/UNDER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE

It’s well-documented that Kevin Durant is having the most efficient scoring season of his career, which incidentally is one of the most efficient scoring seasons of all-time for a perimeter player. What’s perhaps not as well known is that his teammate, Patty Mills, is arguably having an even better shooting year.

The two are basically dead even in true shooting percentage around 65%, but Mills is currently scoring slightly more than KD at 1.31 points per possession, a number which would shatter his previous career-best by more than 10 points if he sustains it.

At least through tonight's game, he’s likely to maintain that rare combination of volume and efficiency. The Thibodeau defensive scheme is all about prioritizing rim deterrence and packing the paint, even at the cost of leaving shooters open from 3. 40.6% of all Knicks opponent shots are 3s, the third highest in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

When Harden or Kevin Durant attack the rim and draw two defenders, Mills is going to find himself open a lot. The Over is a solid bet here.

PICK OVER 3.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+110)

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JULIUS RANDLE TO RECORD A DOUBLE-DOUBLE

It has been a struggle to start the year for Julius Randle. His mid-range jumper has all but deserted him, and he’s never looked comfortable playing alongside the new starting lineup. And when things weren’t going well for him on offense, it has at times affected his effort in other areas, something that was uniformly untrue last season, where the foundation of his All-NBA campaign was a massive defensive improvement.

Still, there have been signs of life lately, including monster performances against the Los Angeles Lakers and the Chicago Bulls. He’s back to averaging a double-double on the year, after nabbing 10 or more boards in five of his last seven games. And it’s likely that he benefits as much as anyone from Walker being excised from the rotation. While he and Evan Fournier play off each other well, Walker and Randle never clicked, and Julius re-assuming a dominant place in the Knicks offense might help him recapture some of last year's magic. 

It also helps that the Nets are the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA and that their interior defense is old and creaky with Nic Claxton continuing to miss time.

PICK: YES (+102)