NBA Finals Trends
NBA Finals logo. (Photo by Christophe Elise/DPPI/Icon Sportswire)
June 3rd, 2021
The NBA Finals are going to be in July this year instead of early June, but that doesn't change the kinds of trends we should expect to see. We've reviewed mountains of data to uncover the historical trends bettors need to know.
Fade the public
The NBA Finals typically brings in more "new money" than the normal NBA betting season. Oddsmakers understand this, and make lines to counter novice bettors making wagers based on their favorite teams or players.
In the NBA Finals, the team that earns the majority of public bets is 37-51-1 against the spread. That is a 58.4% winning percentage if you just blindly fade the public in every game in the Finals. Watch out for those bet splits, and make a wise decision before just jumping on your favorite players.
Watch for high totals
In the NBA Finals, point totals are typically much smaller than earlier in the playoffs or the regular season. That's because teams that make the Finals usually have better defenses and their coaches have a chance to game plan ever single scenario over a seven-game series.
In NBA Finals games since 2005, the Under is 48-41-3 in all games. However, that number drops to 8-8 in all games with a total of 215 or higher. If you can find some higher totals, then it is generally safe to pound the Under.
Kawhi’s defense on LeBron in those NBA Finals was incredible 😤 This is when he wasn’t really a scorer yet, his role was to be as much of a dog out there as possible. That strength, length, foot speed, intensity/energy and those hands made it challenging for Bron. pic.twitter.com/PIFcJWXCae
— Ball Don't Stop (@balldontstop) June 13, 2019
Rest is for the wicked
Your natural inclination would lead you to believe that the team coming into the NBA Finals with the most rest would be a good pick for Game 1 to place your wager on. However, just the opposite has been true in the past seven NBA Finals.
Since the 2014, the team that came into the Finals with the least amount of playoff games played is 2-5 ATS in Game 1. In only one of these seven occurrences did the underdog cover the spread. The underdog that covered actually had more rest than their opponent.
Favorites are not guaranteed to cover
In the NBA Finals, the best team will usually end up hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy after the final buzzer. The series favorite is 9-5 overall since 2007.
However, that does not necessarily remain true in terms of covering the spread of each individual game. Since 2007, the favorite is only 39-38-2 ATS. In the past two seasons, the favorite is a ghastly 3-8-1 ATS.
ADVERTISEMENT
