NBA First Round Playoff Trends

We broke down the best trends to follow each week during the NBA regular season, and now it's time to look at playoff trends. We'll examine historical data and current metrics to find the best trends as the first round nears.

Favorites own this round

In the last five postseasons, the betting favorite has advanced in a stunning 36 of 40 first-round series. In these series, look for big road favorites. In the last 27 occurrences, a road favorite of 4.5 points or more is 18-8-1 ATS in first round games.

Last season, all home favorites in the first round went 22-12-1 ATS. Another favorite trend to look for is when the No. 2-seed is a big favorite (4.5 points or more). They are 28-15 ATS in the last 43 first round playoff games.

In a closeout game scenario, big road favorites are on an incredible run. Road favorites of 4.5 points or more are 9-2 ATS since the start of the 2013 postseason in the first round.  

The most consistent team as a favorite this season was the New York Knicks. They went 19-8 ATS in games they were favored. They were also the best home favorite team in the NBA at 13-4 ATS. The most consistent road favorite was the Portland Trailblazers at 12-6 ATS.

Don't overreact

Just because a team gets upset in the first game or two of the series does not mean we are looking at a series upset. Since 2002, when the underdog wins Game 1, they are 8-31 SU in Game 2 and 18-21 ATS. Whenever a No. 1-seed is trailing in a series, they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven occurrences.

In the last 29 Game 4’s where a team had a 2-1 series lead, the team that was trailing in the series is 18-10-1 ATS. Teams that lose a game by three points or less come back to win the next game in 28 of the last 38 occurrences. They are also 24-12-2 ATS in those games.

Three playoff teams had a better than 60% win percentage against the spread following a loss in the regular season. They are the Phoenix Suns (15-6 ATS), New York Knicks (19-12 ATS), and Portland Trailblazers (18-12 ATS).

History is not kind to the 4-seed

In the last six years, the No. 4-seed has been a terrible wager in almost every scenario. When they are favorites of six points or more, they are a mediocre 6-7 ATS. In every other line scenario, they are 20-36-2 ATS.

Since 2013, they are 11-23 ATS after a loss. If you see a No. 4-seed drop a game, look to bet against them in the next one. No. 4-seeds are especially bad when they travel on the road for games 3 and 4. In the last six seasons, the No. 4-seed is 7-16-1 ATS in these games.

The Atlanta Hawks are 23-13 ATS at home this season, and 22-17-1 ATS after a win. However, the Dallas Mavericks are only 15-21 ATS at home this season, and 20-22 ATS after a win. The Knicks are 23-13 ATS on the road, and 19-12 ATS after a loss. The Los Angeles Clippers are 18-17-1 ATS on the road and 14-10 ATS after a loss. Something has to give here.