NBA Odds Update: Making sense of a frantic first weekend

There weren't many surprises in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Both No. 7-seeds won their opening games to advance, and the Memphis Grizzlies' victory over the depleted Golden State Warriors was far from shocking.

However, the opening weekend of the 2021 NBA Playoffs did see a few upsets. On Saturday, the Milwaukee Bucks needed an OT buzzer beater to take down the Miami Heat at home. The Los Angeles Clippers went down at home to the Dallas Mavericks in embarrassing fashion. In addition, the Denver Nuggets struggled to score, losing at home to the Portland Trail Blazers.

On Sunday, the Phoenix Suns manhandled the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. Then, the No. 1-seed Utah Jazz fell at home to the Grizz.

Let’s look at how the NBA championship odds changed following a wildly unpredictable start to the first round of the playoffs.

Los Angeles Clippers (+500 to +750)

The Clippers took the biggest hit from the first weekend after their surprising home loss to the Mavericks.

When you look at the team stats from Saturday’s game, you would think the Clippers had no problems winning the game given that they won the turnover battle 5-13 and tied or won assists, fouls, fast break points, and points in the paint. However, there were two major stat categories that made the difference: points off turnovers and three point shooting.

The Mavericks won points off turnovers 17-5 despite having eight more turnovers than the Clippers. They also shot 17-36 from 3-point range compared to only 11-40 for Los Angeles. The Clippers will need to shore up their shooting and take advantage of their forced turnovers if they plan on making a title run.

Portland Trail Blazers (+5500 to +2800)

The Blazers are still a longshot to make an NBA title run, but they certainly looked legit on Saturday night. They got a real team effort behind Damian Lillard’s 34 points and 13 assists, as five other players reached double figures in scoring, and only C.J. McCollum and Norm Powell shot worse than 50% from the field.

On the defensive end, they allowed Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. to do their thing and made sure no one else pitched in. The rest of the Nuggets shot 21-45 from the field. No one on the team surpassed five assists.

If Portland can continue to dominate their opponent's supporting cast with their own, they can make a deep run in these playoffs. All they have to do is keep the game enough for Lillard to take over in Dame Time.

Utah Jazz (+700 to +800)

Surprisingly, the Jazz did not fall too far in their odds after their upset loss at home on Sunday night. One major reason may be that they were without Donovan Mitchell, who will likely be back for Game 2.

The Jazz will have their hands full with the Grizzlies even with Mitchell back. The young Grizzlies have shown great resiliency, taking down Western Conference stalwarts like the San Antonio Spurs and Warriors to even get to this series.

The Jazz cannot continue to allow the Grizzlies to dominate in the paint, where they scored an eye-popping 62 points in Game 1. They'll need a return from Mitchell, and a return to form from Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert to even this series up.