NBA picks: Magic vs. Bucks, Trail Blazers vs. Lakers

What a start to the NBA playoffs. Not even the harshest critic could find much to be disappointed about with the play we’ve seen in the first week. The defending champs look good,  teams from L.A. have created drama, and we get afternoon basketball. If anything, it’s going to be disappointing when half the teams are eliminated by the end of next week. Let’s take a look at two fascinating Game 2’s between our top seeds.

Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Allow me to be blunt. I simply don’t understand this line and the credit that is being given to Milwaukee. Sure, the Bucks were by far the best team in the regular season and hugely efficient en route to the No. 1 seed, but the bubble is different. Too much credit is being given to a team that has not shown itself to be elite in the restart, and this is way too many points to give.

The Magic went through the preliminary bubble period playing well, losing several games but also playing multiple games without stars Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, and Evan Fournier. Now that these three players are back, the Magic are a better team than we witnessed during the play-in games, where from an efficiency standpoint they were not far off from the Bucks. During bubble play, the Magic shot 46.2% to the Bucks’ 46.5% from the field, shot 80.2% on free throws to the Bucks’ 74.4%, averaged two fewer turnovers per game, and were basically a very comparable team on both sides of the court.

In Game 1, the Magic handled the Bucks rather easily. In last year’s playoffs, the Toronto Raptors delivered the blueprint for beating the Bucks: Double Giannis inside and force him, or others, to shoot from beyond the arc. I see little reason why the No. 8 seed Magic won’t play another competitive game against a Bucks team that is currently playing average basketball.

NBA pick: Magic +13

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers

As if one No. 1 seed losing in a day wasn’t enough, the Lakers showed their shortcomings later on Tuesday by also falling. L.A. gets a chance to redeem themself in Game 2 and are favored by 6.5 points, but once again this is an opportunity to bet against an overvalued and vulnerable favorite.

In case you’ve been living in your own personal bubble, Damian Lillard is on a mission. He is playing basketball in a way that we will remember for a very long time, and is now hitting 41% of his 30-footers this season (55 of 134). He is the second most accurate three-point shooter on unassisted shots at 40.6% in the entire NBA, and I’ve gotten this far into the preview without even mentioning Jusuf Nurkic or C.J. McCollum.

The Blazers’ biggest shortcoming coming into this series was defense, and yet the Lakers managed only 93 points despite Anthony Davis contributing a double-double and LeBron James recording a triple-double.

The Lakers are simply not playing inspired basketball at the moment, but they have star power and name recognition. They are also the top seed in the West, which necessitates that they be given favoritism until they convincingly prove they don’t deserve it. Fortunately for supporters of the Blazers, the general public and bookmakers don’t think they’ve proven that yet. With Tuesday’s cover, the Blazers improved to 47-22 in their last 69 games against the Lakers.

Final thought: remember 2011 when the Mavs swept the Lakers? I do.

NBA pick: Trail Blazers +6.5