NBA Trends Watch: The Spurs are surging

We've completed nearly half of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of as the 2020-21 season rolls on.

Favorites are taking back control

Early on in this season, the underdogs were the moneymaker. However, the tides are turning and the favorites are starting to cover at a much higher rate. In the past seven days, favorites are 29-21-1 ATS and road favorites are 14-10-1 ATS. In the past 30 days, favorites are 119-102-3 ATS and road favorites are 54-45-2 ATS.

The best teams as favorites in any scenario are the Utah Jazz (23-10 ATS) and Phoenix Suns (17-9 ATS). The best teams as home favorites are the New York Knicks (5-1 ATS), Jazz (13-3 ATS), Suns (10-4 ATS), and Golden State Warriors (7-3 ATS). The best road favorites are the Memphis Grizzlies (3-1 ATS) and Dallas Mavericks (5-2 ATS).

No total is too high

In the past seven days, the Over is 29-22. In the past 30 days, the Over is 125-97. One big number to look for is what the oddsmakers set the total as. The higher the total, the more likely the Over is going to hit. I know this makes no sense, but just look at the numbers.

When the closing total is higher than 235 points, the Over is an astounding 27-13. The best teams to bet Over on are the New Orleans Pelicans (26-9), Sacramento Kings (23-11), and Brooklyn Nets (25-12).

Situationally, the best teams to bet the Over on are the New Orleans Pelicans after a win (12-3) and as the home team (16-2), the Charlotte Hornets as the best road team (14-4), and the Toronto Raptors are the best road favorite (7-2).

Are the Knicks back?

The New York Knicks have found themselves right in the thick of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They sit at 18-18 overall and in fifth place currently in the East. They have won seven of their past 10 games and are 7-3 ATS in that span.

The Knicks are 5-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-3 ATS when they have the rest advantage over their opponent. However, unlike most of the NBA, they seem to be winning with their defense over their offense. The Under is 3-11 when the Knicks are a road underdog, and 5-14 when they are the road team.

Remember the Spurs?

It has been a few years since the San Antonio Spurs were contenders for an NBA title. They may not be quite back to that level, but they are currently 18-13 and fifth in the Western Conference standings. They have won seven of their last 10 games and have covered in six of their last nine.

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS when they are a road favorite and 6-1 ATS when they are playing an Eastern Conference opponent. They are also 5-1 ATS when they have 2-3 days off between games.

The Over is 5-2 in games against the Eastern Conference, and the Under is 5-1 when the Spurs have the rest advantage over their opponent.