Rudy Gobert favored to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year

Believe it or not, the NBA season is only two months away. Early awards odds have already dropped, and no surprise, Rudy Gobert is the frontrunner to once again take home NBA Defensive Player of the Year. But is betting on the Jazz big man the smart bet?

Let’s take a look at Gobert's DPOY candidacy as well as a few of his chief competitors to see where the best value lies.

RUDY GOBERT (+200)

Gobert has won three of the last four Defensive Player of the Year awards, and he’s the betting favorite to win again this year at +200. He received 84 out of a possible 100 first-place votes last year, and Utah had the best defensive rating in the NBA. Gobert’s biggest competitor was Ben Simmons, who pulled in 15 of the remaining 16 first-place votes. That’s Gobert’s largest margin of victory since he first won it in 2018 with 89 first-place votes.

But voter fatigue is real, and despite being the deserving winner last season, there will be an element of the voting caucus who wrongly blames Utah’s defensive shortcomings in the playoffs on Gobert. If that narrative sticks or Utah slips from their top spot, I can easily see Gobert losing.

Joe Ingles and Mike Conley are key cogs in their perimeter defense, both of whom are now past their prime, and in Conley’s case, at serious risk for injury or extended absence. For all those reasons, I’m looking elsewhere on the ballot for value despite Gobert’s impeccable track record.

BEN SIMMONS (+500)

Simmons was the runner-up to Gobert, but I'm skeptical of him ever improving on that finish. Simmons has benefited immensely from playing alongside Joel Embiid, who is probably a better defender than Simmons all things considered. He’s also surrounded on the Sixers by All-Defensive wing talent with Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle.

But the ongoing fallout from their second-round exist leaves it all but assured that Simmons will be traded before the trade deadline, which probably eliminates him from contention. The last (and only) player to win Defensive Player of the Year after being traded midseason was Dikembe Mutombo in 2001. There is almost no scenario where Simmons ends up on a better defensive team than the Sixers post-trade, and voters may have trouble separating his offensive struggles from his defensive impact.

ANTHONY DAVIS (+800)

Davis, like the rest of the Lakers, had a down year last season. Even before the injuries, it seemed like the shortened offseason and championship hangover got to him. Davis never quite shook off the rust to return to his All-Defensive form.

Davis should be properly motivated once more this year, and he has all the talent and supporting context necessary to win DPOY. Still, the Lakers have a lot of new defensive question marks (the biggest one being Russell Westbrook) and losing guards Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will certainly result in a lot more dribble penetration. At +800, this is decent value in a vacuum, but Giannis is also at +800. Speaking of which...

GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO (+800)

Giannis didn’t feature on the ballot last year, but he’s the only reason that Gobert isn’t currently trying to four-peat, as he won with 75 first-place votes in 2020 when the Bucks had the top defense in the NBA (Utah was 11th), joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as just the third player to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season.

But there’s good reason to think that Giannis will be back on top of the ballot this year. For one thing, the Bucks spent much of last season experimenting on defense, adding in switching and hedging coverages to diversify their defensive playbook. By the end of their title run, they had come close to mastering these other looks. With more experience and championship-level confidence, the Bucks should be a top-3 defense in 2021-22. And if the voters give proper credit, Giannis is the greatest bearer of responsibility for their defensive achievement.

But voters do not always give proper credit, so there is one more possibility to consider.

JRUE HOLIDAY (+2000)

If there has been any player who has dominated basketball headlines because of their defense over the last few months, it’s been Jrue Holiday. After erasing Chris Paul’s championship hopes in the NBA Finals, Holiday hopped on a plane to Tokyo where he promptly did the same to Rudy Gobert’s gold medal dreams. Holiday was easily Team USA’s second most valuable player after Kevin Durant, and that was all because of his relentless man-to-man defense.

The way the modern game is played though, it’s difficult to imagine a strictly perimeter defender deserving to win the award again. The name of the modern NBA game is rim protection, and well-used screening actions can limit any single wing defender’s impact.

But in the immortal words of The Wire’s Snoop Pearson "deserve got nothin’ to do with it." Like it or not, awards are just as much about narrative as they are actual impact, and Holiday will have the strongest narrative edge entering next year of any of the main contenders. +2000 is a pretty competitive number given that advantage.

The Greek Freak is THE BEST BET

All things considered, betting on Giannis is the best overall play. The Bucks should once again win through their defense, and voter fatigue should be replaced by a post-championship halo. Giannis will benefit from both, and as the second-best defender of this group behind Rudy Gobert, +800 is great value.